Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $312.47
- Potential profit
- $312.47
- User PnL
- -$97
Polymarket Trader
BadProphet
0x50b0b5be14f256bf15c63ae78b33be7214b27dc5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $169.48
- Realized PnL
- $1.31K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $231
- Potential profit
- $231
- User PnL
- -$28.72
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.8%
- Current value
- $21.8
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $78.2
- Multiplier
- 4.59x
- User PnL
- -$22.43
Yes position
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $99.85
- Potential profit
- $99.3
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$6.13
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $2.17
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $47.83
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$2.33
No position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.99
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.78
No position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $19.98
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.62
No position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $19.98
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $19.91
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- User PnL
- $0.85
No position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.99
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.55
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $14.61
- Potential payout
- $15.49
- Potential profit
- $0.88
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$4.74
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$3.75
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $10
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $2.59
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$7.05
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $9.89
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.11
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $6.44
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $1.3
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.7
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$3.9
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$4.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$5.35
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.98
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.98
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$0.85
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $3.35
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $6.65
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 16?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $5.95
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $4.05
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$0.65
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $227.34
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.78
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.83
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.7
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.84
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.72
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.86
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.99
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.74
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.13
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 11?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.25
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 16?
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.22
No position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on February 27?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.47
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.37
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.32
No position
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.73
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.82
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.67
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.94
Down position
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 17?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.58
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.48
No position
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on July 15?Yes 36% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 15?No 95% 15.49 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 15?Yes 17% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 16?No 66% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 15?No 97.5% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 15?Yes 34.5% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 15?Yes 40% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 15?No 95.3% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 15?No 97.2% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 15?No 96.8% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 15?No 96% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 14?No 98% 20 shares