Polymarket Trader

polonii

0x50d2f3d3ad59498e16f23f67e14b9a02a9c15c8b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $123.18
Realized PnL: $379.68
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.71
Potential payout: $3.43K
Potential profit: $3.43K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.71

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.09K
Potential profit: $3.09K
User PnL: -$7.65

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $1.8K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.34
Potential payout: $890.33
Potential profit: $888.99
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $696.86
Potential profit: $696.86
User PnL: -$136.24

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.72
Potential payout: $572.99
Potential profit: $571.27
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$3.99

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.32
Potential payout: $213.57
Potential profit: $213.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.02

No position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 62.4%
Current value: $48.13
Potential payout: $77.19
Potential profit: $29.06
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$8.95

Yes position

Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $49.73
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.27
User PnL: $9.23

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $28.7
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$2.21

No position

Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 49%
Current value: $4.73
Potential payout: $9.66
Potential profit: $4.93
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: -$2.27

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.35
Potential profit: $7.35
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3
Potential profit: $3
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.96
Potential profit: $1.96
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.56

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?

Ends Jul 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.1

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.87

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.75

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $15.53

No position

Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?

Ends Aug 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.81

Yes position

Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.37

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.74

No position

Will Trump say "Nord Stream" or "Pipeline" during conference with Putin on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.94

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.77

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 23.3%
Multiplier: 4.30x
User PnL: $10.53

No position

Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.69

No position

Will Trump say "President Xi" during conference with Putin on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.03

Yes position

Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?

Ends Aug 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.59

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.96

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.59

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.42

No position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.02

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $3.83

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56

Yes position

Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.09

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?

Ends Jul 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46

No position

Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.28

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.21

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?

Yes 1% 120 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?

Yes 1% 333 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Yes 2.2% 7.42 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Yes 2.5% 45.43 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?

Yes 4% 100 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Yes 2.8% 90 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Yes 4% 60 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Yes 4% 40 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Yes 4% 77.8 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?

Yes 0.1% 1,000 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?

Yes 1% 119.99 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?

Yes 1.9% 90 shares