Oldfarm

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $356.61
Potential payout: $374
Potential profit: $17.39
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.54

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $14.89
Potential payout: $300.72
Potential profit: $285.83
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $1.74

Yes position

Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $40.78
Potential payout: $140.63
Potential profit: $99.85
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: -$9.48

No position

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $99.32
Potential payout: $139.01
Potential profit: $39.69
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $14.82

No position

Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $119.57
Potential payout: $127.2
Potential profit: $7.63
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $4.63

Yes position

Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $7.62
Potential payout: $126.98
Potential profit: $119.36
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $6.87
Potential payout: $111.78
Potential profit: $104.9
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: -$0.94

No position

Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $103.83
Potential payout: $110.11
Potential profit: $6.28
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $3.11

Yes position

Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $18.48
Potential payout: $88
Potential profit: $69.52
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $3.52

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $3.93
Potential payout: $87.34
Potential profit: $83.41
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.44

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $3.64
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $76.36
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.6%
Current value: $4.92
Potential payout: $57
Potential profit: $52.08
Multiplier: 11.57x
User PnL: -$0.78

No position

Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $54.69
Potential payout: $56.21
Potential profit: $1.52
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $5.45

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.42
Potential payout: $52
Potential profit: $47.58
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $49.07
Potential payout: $51.3
Potential profit: $2.23
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $1.36

No position

Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 92.8%
Current value: $44.54
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $3.46
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 9.2%
Current value: $4.21
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $41.79
Multiplier: 10.93x
User PnL: $2.23

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $41.07
Potential payout: $43
Potential profit: $1.94
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Makina FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 86.2%
Current value: $35.32
Potential payout: $41
Potential profit: $5.68
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $4.11
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $31.6
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $1.25

No position

Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $28.25
Potential payout: $35.53
Potential profit: $7.28
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $7.99
Potential payout: $33.99
Potential profit: $26
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $2.18

Yes position

Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $2.19
Potential payout: $33.73
Potential profit: $31.54
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $0.21

No position

Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $24.49
Potential payout: $31
Potential profit: $6.51
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $1.7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Google reports Gemini monthly active users above 800M in Q1?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200.39

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.83

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.29

No position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.31

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.23

Yes position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 11?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $63.14

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $52.08

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 28?

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.99

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.74

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.45

Yes position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.38

Yes position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $41.13

Yes position

Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10.5B by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.6

Yes position

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?

Implied probability: 3%
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: $36.76

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $34.14

No position

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.9

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.98

No position

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $177.50 Week of May 4 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.6

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.5

No position

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

Yes position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25.92

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25.49

No position

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.09

No position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?