Polymarket Trader

xiaoaojiang

0x519556f235d1f76572211b03862f54ca178644eb

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $308.15
Realized PnL: $1.95
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 2
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $155
Potential profit: $154.77
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.39

Yes position

Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $112.38
Potential payout: $155
Potential profit: $42.63
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $26.68

Yes position

Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $3.94
Potential payout: $155
Potential profit: $151.06
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$7.11

Yes position

Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $31
Potential payout: $155
Potential profit: $124
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$14.2

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $10.15
Potential payout: $155
Potential profit: $144.85
Multiplier: 15.27x
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be less than -1.0%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $3.84
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $76.16
Multiplier: 20.83x
User PnL: -$1.52

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.6% and 2.0%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $4.16
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $75.84
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: -$2.05

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $5.56
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $74.44
Multiplier: 14.39x
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $15.2
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $64.8
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$3.07

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $28.4
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $51.6
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $0.55

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between -0.9% and -0.5%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $4.44
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $75.56
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: $0.68

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $3.08
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $76.92
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between -0.4% and 0.0%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $1.52
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $78.48
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $4.48
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $75.52
Multiplier: 17.86x
User PnL: $0.56

Yes position

Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in states won by Kamala?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 28.2%
Current value: $15.53
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $39.47
Multiplier: 3.54x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $9.9
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $45.1
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will Republicans win 0 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 32.8%
Current value: $18.04
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $36.96
Multiplier: 3.05x
User PnL: $12.21

Yes position

Will Republicans win 3 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $8.58
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $46.42
Multiplier: 6.41x
User PnL: -$6.81

Yes position

Will Republicans win 4 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.24
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $53.76
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will Republicans win 5 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $54.64
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Republicans win 6 or more Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $54.84
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $39.52
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $39.92
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 10, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $25.4
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $14.6
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$4.35

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 6?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 0.3% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 0.8% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 10% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 71% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 15% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 5 shares