Polymarket Trader

0x51dE66B7f3d10EceB99aaB57622cA850655e9E4A-1779581016815

0x51de66b7f3d10eceb99aab57622ca850655e9e4a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $17.15K
Realized PnL: $21.42K
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $4.67K
Potential payout: $15.32K
Potential profit: $10.65K
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$31.81

No position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $2.37K
Potential payout: $11.86K
Potential profit: $9.48K
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$63.44

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $2.33K
Potential payout: $10.82K
Potential profit: $8.5K
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $84.7

Yes position

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $1.13K
Potential payout: $9.86K
Potential profit: $8.73K
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $19.76

Yes position

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $36.47
Potential payout: $5.61K
Potential profit: $5.57K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$131.51

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $27.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.97K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$12.5

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $31.86
Potential payout: $4.55K
Potential profit: $4.52K
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$98.14

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.01K
Potential profit: $4.01K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $565.77
Potential payout: $3.65K
Potential profit: $3.08K
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$59.83

Yes position

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $60.93
Potential payout: $3.58K
Potential profit: $3.52K
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$110.83

Yes position

Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $22.34
Potential payout: $2.98K
Potential profit: $2.96K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$37.98

Yes position

Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $2.23K
Potential payout: $2.78K
Potential profit: $556.93
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $279.21

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $827.14
Potential payout: $2.63K
Potential profit: $1.8K
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: -$17.74

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $519.25
Potential payout: $2.47K
Potential profit: $1.95K
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$219.2

Yes position

US x China tariff agreement by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $197.08
Potential payout: $2.39K
Potential profit: $2.19K
Multiplier: 12.12x
User PnL: -$52.92

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $410.22
Potential payout: $2.28K
Potential profit: $1.87K
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $45.58

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $608.39
Potential payout: $2.21K
Potential profit: $1.6K
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $8.39

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $4.33
Potential payout: $2.16K
Potential profit: $2.16K
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$14.67

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $311.24
Potential payout: $2.07K
Potential profit: $1.76K
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$65.95

Yes position

Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $64.05
Potential payout: $1.91K
Potential profit: $1.85K
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$77.99

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $59.26
Potential payout: $1.85K
Potential profit: $1.79K
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: $9.26

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $140.77
Potential payout: $1.75K
Potential profit: $1.61K
Multiplier: 12.42x
User PnL: $40.77

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $266.51
Potential payout: $1.62K
Potential profit: $1.35K
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $66.51

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $260.27
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $1.19K
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$13.74

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.6K

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.66K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $714.89

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $511.34

Yes position

Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $354.61

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $158.97

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $153.52

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $64.44

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $42.55

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33.08

Yes position

Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $6.53

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

Yes position

Will Bessent say "China" during Press Briefing?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.9

Yes position

Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.41

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.28

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.66

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Yes 16% 404 shares
Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates in June?

Yes 4.9% 204.95 shares
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?

Yes 14% 331.39 shares
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Yes 13.8% 726.21 shares
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B?

No 78% 44.74 shares
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?

No 11.4% 328.52 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 68.3% 327.61 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 66.7% 299.75 shares
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

No 21% 117.7 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 11.8% 400 shares
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Yes 18.7% 535.78 shares
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

Yes 24% 17.77 shares