Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.51
- Potential payout
- $77.82
- Potential profit
- $77.32
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$6.49
Polymarket Trader
0x5217...8201
0x52177c82768be0178896fde8544e81d2ed0e8201
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $169.81
- Realized PnL
- $614.65
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $61.6
- Potential payout
- $61.97
- Potential profit
- $0.37
- User PnL
- $22.85
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $51.54
- Potential payout
- $60.28
- Potential profit
- $8.74
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $8.99
Yes position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $4.12
- Potential payout
- $30.51
- Potential profit
- $26.4
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.16
- Potential payout
- $27.03
- Potential profit
- $26.87
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.84
Yes position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.15
- Potential payout
- $21.95
- Potential profit
- $21.8
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$1.85
Y
Yes position
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $19.94
- Potential payout
- $19.97
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $1.12
Yes position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $17.76
- Potential payout
- $17.77
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $0.41
- Potential payout
- $15.98
- Potential profit
- $15.57
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$1.59
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $3.6
- Potential payout
- $15.33
- Potential profit
- $11.72
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $0.33
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $10.78
- Multiplier
- 33.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.67
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.72
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $10.39
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
Yes position
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $0.2
- Potential payout
- $10.67
- Potential profit
- $10.46
- Multiplier
- 52.63x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
Yes position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $10.42
- Potential profit
- $10.33
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$3.91
Y
Yes position
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.9
- Potential profit
- $9.9
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $1.61
- Potential payout
- $9.2
- Potential profit
- $7.59
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.69
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $8.28
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $8.31
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $0.46
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $7.87
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $7.68
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Yes position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $7.46
- Potential profit
- $7.38
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$0.92
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.9%
- Current value
- $1.16
- Potential payout
- $7.31
- Potential profit
- $6.14
- Multiplier
- 6.29x
- User PnL
- -$2.84
Yes position
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $7.11
- Potential profit
- $6.01
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $4.18
- Potential payout
- $6.48
- Potential profit
- $2.3
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $218.6
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.84
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.77
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.18
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.55
Yes position
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.66
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.22
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.19
Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.61
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.95
No position
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.05
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.76
Yes position
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.69
No position
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.69
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.14
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.09
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.04
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.56
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.66
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.91
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.85
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.84
No position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1 shares