No position
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.94
- Potential profit
- $7.94
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
HYDefire
0x52ca2981dc8cf1c31684194960068bbc0be21c58
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $18.12
- Realized PnL
- $1.62K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $6.2
- Potential payout
- $6.85
- Potential profit
- $0.65
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.2
No position
Doge ETF approved in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.33
- Potential profit
- $4.33
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $3.82
- Potential payout
- $4.02
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.82
No position
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $4
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $2.98
- Potential payout
- $3.9
- Potential profit
- $0.92
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.7
- Potential profit
- $3.7
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.13
- Potential profit
- $3.13
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.9
- Potential profit
- $2.9
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will no leader be out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.78
- Potential profit
- $2.78
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US government shutdown in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.67
- Potential profit
- $2.67
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Trump say "Semiconductor" or "Chip" during events with South Korean president on August 25?
Ends Aug 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.56
- Potential profit
- $2.56
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?
Ends Nov 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.44
- Potential profit
- $2.44
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $1.21
- Potential payout
- $2.44
- Potential profit
- $1.23
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
N
No position
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.39
- Potential profit
- $2.39
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?
Ends Aug 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.38
- Potential profit
- $2.38
- User PnL
- -$1.5
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $1.17
- Potential payout
- $2.33
- Potential profit
- $1.15
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.27
- Potential profit
- $2.27
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $1.3
- Potential payout
- $2.04
- Potential profit
- $0.74
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $0.4
- Potential payout
- $1.92
- Potential profit
- $1.52
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Will Powell say "Labor" 25+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?
Ends Aug 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.89
- Potential profit
- $1.89
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.79
- Potential profit
- $1.79
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" this week?
Ends Aug 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.72
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $1.69
- Potential profit
- $0.65
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
ETH above $1,900 on April 11?
Ends Apr 10, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $562.7
No position
Will Trump smile in his mugshot?
Ends Apr 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.78
Yes position
Will $ETH be above $1550 on March 17?
Ends Mar 17, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.21
No position
Will the Fed cut rates in 2023?
Ends Dec 31, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83
Yes position
Will $ETH be above $1700 on March 31?
Ends Mar 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.65
No position
Will $ETH be above $1800 on March 31?
Ends Mar 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.59
Yes position
DOGE above 8¢ on April 14?
Ends Apr 14, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.91
No position
ETH above $2,100 on April 16?
Ends Apr 15, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.79
Yes position
Will $ETH be above $1800 on April 7?
Ends Apr 6, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.68
Yes position
Will Coinbase resume USDC redemptions by Monday night?
Ends Mar 13, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.86
Yes position
US debt ceiling hike by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.85
Yes position
Will $ETH be above $1700 on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.23
No position
Will a third US bank fail by March 17?
Ends Mar 17, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.54
No position
Will ETH hit $2,500 by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38
No position
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in September?
Ends Sep 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.27
No position
Will CZ be arrested by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.56
No position
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before Nov 1?
Ends Oct 31, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.5
No position
Trump and Biden both win nomination?
Ends Sep 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.67
No position
Bitcoin all time high in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.62
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its May meeting?
Ends May 2, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27
No position
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by April 1?
Ends Apr 1, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.78
No position
Will $BTC reach $30,000 by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
$ARB above $1 one week after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.81
No position
Will Interpol issue a Red Notice for CZ by Friday?
Ends Apr 7, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.06
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?No 79% 1.27 shares
- Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?No 73% 1.37 shares
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No 62% 1.61 shares
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?No 73% 6.85 shares
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?No 86% 1.16 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No 59% 1.69 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No 77% 3.9 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?No 93% 1.08 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?No 89% 1.12 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?No 52% 1.92 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?No 70% 1.43 shares
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?No 71% 1.41 shares