Polymarket Trader

Winton

@tlY6v3rAAQT9nQ2

0x52d6c2bef92f384c356c4967eddb57df56afeb20

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $93.41
Realized PnL: $116.88
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 4
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.9K
User PnL: -$1.74K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $93.41
Potential payout: $109.89
Potential profit: $16.48
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$6.59

No position

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.44
Potential profit: $22.44
User PnL: -$18

G2 Esports position

LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.21
Potential profit: $5.21
User PnL: -$3.7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.46

No position

Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.73

Yes position

Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.99

Yes position

Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.68

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.26

No position

Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.25

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.83

Yes position

Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.31

Yes position

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.25

No position

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.3

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.95

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.9

Yes position

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.27

Yes position

Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.19

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.96

Yes position

Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.61

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.99

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.82

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22

No position

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

No position

US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.88

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.58

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 91% 109.89 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

No 92% 103.26 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

No 92% 1,896.74 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

No 97% 129.9 shares
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?

Yes 77% 16.27 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?

No 98.7% 1,677.46 shares
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 99.2% 1,715 shares
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

G2 Esports 71% 5.21 shares
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?

Yes 86% 16.28 shares
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 99.3% 1,715.01 shares
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?

Yes 96% 106.26 shares
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

No 99.8% 1,620.96 shares