priestar

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $2.63
Potential payout: $438.39
Potential profit: $435.76
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $134.69
Potential profit: $134.63
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.93

No position

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $23.72
Potential payout: $96.81
Potential profit: $73.09
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $8.72

Yes position

Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $87.62
Potential profit: $87.62
User PnL: -$2.59

No position

Will Iran strike UAE again in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.06
Potential profit: $72.06
User PnL: -$14.26

Yes position

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.89
Potential profit: $58.89
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.91
Potential profit: $43.91
User PnL: -$3

No position

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.36
Potential profit: $36.36
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $34.67
Potential profit: $33.58
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$1.91

Yes position

Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.2
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.95

No position

ChatGPT Outage by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.79
Potential profit: $29.79
User PnL: -$21.7

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $29.4
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $26.93
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$0.15

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $22.22
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $20.41
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $15.83
Potential profit: $15.78
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.94

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $15.24
Potential profit: $15.23
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.99

Yes position

Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $13.04
Potential profit: $12.98
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$2.93

Yes position

Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Ayatollah" during trophy presentation?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.76
Potential profit: $11.76
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $11.1
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $0.41
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $10.12
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$1.59

Yes position

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.88
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.87

G2 position

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.73
Potential profit: $9.73
User PnL: -$0.97

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.37

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.6

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.7

No position

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.43

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.08

No position

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.67

No position

US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.01

No position

Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.81

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.76

No position

Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.44

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.33

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.67

Yes position

Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.33

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.91

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $4.47

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.05

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.01

Yes position

Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 79.8%
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $3.86

MOUZ position

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.83

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?