No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.1K
- Potential profit
- $11.1K
- User PnL
- -$8.89K
Polymarket Trader
xiaojiren
0x537263fdfc15e4e967e63c0c783f22f549e74b1f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $16.48K
- Realized PnL
- $24.98K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $2.3K
- Potential payout
- $3.8K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$686.6
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $3.68K
- Potential payout
- $3.72K
- Potential profit
- $42.84
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $612.24
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $3.32K
- Potential payout
- $3.59K
- Potential profit
- $268.99
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $412.08
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $2.72K
- Potential payout
- $2.74K
- Potential profit
- $15.06
- User PnL
- $364.05
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $1.35K
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $34.66
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $187.77
No position
Trump weaponization fund blocked by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- User PnL
- -$972.5
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $1.07K
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $11.31
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $122.93
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $869.97
- Potential payout
- $994.25
- Potential profit
- $124.28
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $137.94
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $591.29
- Potential payout
- $821.23
- Potential profit
- $229.95
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $83.55
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $370.1
- Potential payout
- $427.86
- Potential profit
- $57.76
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$2.14
No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $343.9
- Potential profit
- $343.9
- User PnL
- -$89.13
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $161.35
- Potential payout
- $225.66
- Potential profit
- $64.31
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $9.02
No position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $40.4
- Potential payout
- $43.44
- Potential profit
- $3.04
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.47K
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.77K
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.29K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.89K
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24K
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $979.7
No position
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $853.88
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $822.66
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $780.14
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $762.5
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $756.16
No position
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $639.63
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $502.69
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $452.27
No position
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?
Ends Jul 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $418.44
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $395.83
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $381.19
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $367.63
No position
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $357.91
Yes position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $324.2
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $281.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?No 88% 43.43 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 73% 5 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 23% 300 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 35.7% 100 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 36.5% 100 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 35.8% 100 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026?No 87% 427.86 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 60% 621.25 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?No 67% 20 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?No 70% 99.9 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 93.1% 1,689.44 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?No 65.6% 45.76 shares