Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $6.76
- Potential payout
- $712.01
- Potential profit
- $705.25
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$12.27
Polymarket Trader
0x53a9...d43e
0x53a969c840ed820764d54d70dde6486421e7d43e
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $427.32
- Realized PnL
- $510
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $6.48
- Potential payout
- $370.35
- Potential profit
- $363.87
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$19.99
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $185
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $15
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $8.83
- Potential payout
- $117.7
- Potential profit
- $108.87
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.94
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $94.81
- Potential payout
- $96.84
- Potential profit
- $2.03
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.81
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $6.57
- Potential payout
- $38.64
- Potential profit
- $32.07
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- $2.32
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.9%
- Current value
- $33.89
- Potential payout
- $37.7
- Potential profit
- $3.81
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $4.03
No position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $34.91
- Potential payout
- $36.5
- Potential profit
- $1.59
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $9.7
- Potential payout
- $23.37
- Potential profit
- $13.67
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $0.32
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $6.23
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $8.78
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$2.32
Yes position
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $10.44
- Potential payout
- $13.92
- Potential profit
- $3.48
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $6.02
- Potential payout
- $8.91
- Potential profit
- $2.9
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $0.31
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $8.27
- Potential payout
- $8.27
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.09
Yes position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $4.45
- Potential payout
- $6.74
- Potential profit
- $2.29
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $1.43
- Potential payout
- $5.85
- Potential profit
- $4.41
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.85
No position
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $3.54
- Potential payout
- $4.04
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $318.25
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.3
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.78
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.05
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.64
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.08
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.04
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.2
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $4.09
Yes position
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14
Yes position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Y
Yes position
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Multiplier
- 26.32x
- User PnL
- -$1.08
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.16
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.33
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.6
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$4.38
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13
No position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13.29
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$19.25
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$35.98
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 40.1% 23.37 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 10% 117.7 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes 79.2% 37.7 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 64% 8.91 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 32.5% 21.41 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 29% 13.42 shares
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 92% 50 shares
- Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 13% 27.63 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 53% 68.16 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 64% 15.73 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 64% 17.95 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 55% 7.8 shares