jjrd

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $507.95
Potential payout: $561.27
Potential profit: $53.32
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$2.81

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $394.46
Potential payout: $401.48
Potential profit: $7.03
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $6.27

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $360.53
Potential payout: $363.99
Potential profit: $3.46
User PnL: $13.47

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $229.3
Potential payout: $265.09
Potential profit: $35.79
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$3.27

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $5.64
Potential payout: $131.46
Potential profit: $125.82
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $81.17
Potential payout: $81.62
Potential profit: $0.45
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $55.27
Potential payout: $74.75
Potential profit: $19.47
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $69.69
Potential payout: $74.53
Potential profit: $4.84
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.19

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $45.42
Potential payout: $52.81
Potential profit: $7.39
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.36

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $51.62
Potential payout: $52.38
Potential profit: $0.76
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.43

SuperBad position

Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $49.98
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $42.13
Potential payout: $49.86
Potential profit: $7.73
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.15

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 93.9%
Current value: $43.01
Potential payout: $45.83
Potential profit: $2.82
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.2%
Current value: $37.44
Potential payout: $45.03
Potential profit: $7.59
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.24

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $39.45
Potential payout: $41.12
Potential profit: $1.67
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $30.15
Potential payout: $35.27
Potential profit: $5.11
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $26.89
Potential payout: $32.6
Potential profit: $5.7
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.43

No position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $23.5
Potential profit: $23.39
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$19.89

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $22.91
Potential payout: $22.92
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $5.22

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $21.34
Potential payout: $22.58
Potential profit: $1.24
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $22.05
Potential payout: $22.52
Potential profit: $0.46
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $19.92
Potential payout: $19.99
Potential profit: $0.07
User PnL: $0.39

No position

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $14.65
Potential payout: $17.55
Potential profit: $2.9
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.01

Four Angry Men position

Rainbow Six Siege: One Coin vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Stage

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $15.56
Potential payout: $15.57
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Up position

XRP Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $831.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $733.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $732.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $730.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10AM ET

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $545.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $532.63

Down position

Solana Up or Down - February 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $424.27

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $403.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $402.29

Up position

Solana Up or Down - February 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $400.72

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $353.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $339.8

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $307.01

Down position

Solana Up or Down - February 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.36

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $291.08

Up position

Solana Up or Down - February 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $287.94

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.04

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9AM ET

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $266.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $262.01

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET