Polymarket Trader

Arbguy

0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $731.91K
Realized PnL: $1.89M
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $12.13K
Potential payout: $1.62M
Potential profit: $1.6M
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $1.39K

Yes position

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $14.73K
Potential payout: $892.95K
Potential profit: $878.21K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $2.79K

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $89.43K
Potential payout: $490K
Potential profit: $400.58K
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: -$155.58K

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 81.8%
Current value: $400.58K
Potential payout: $490K
Potential profit: $89.43K
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $155.58K

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.11K
Potential payout: $445.69K
Potential profit: $444.58K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$50.29K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $129.78K
Potential profit: $129.78K
User PnL: -$15.44K

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $9.11K
Potential payout: $124.75K
Potential profit: $115.64K
Multiplier: 13.70x
User PnL: -$4.48K

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $42.89K
Potential payout: $78.7K
Potential profit: $35.81K
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$1.85K

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $58.02K
Potential payout: $58.05K
Potential profit: $29.02
User PnL: $6.32K

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $32.47K
Potential payout: $57.49K
Potential profit: $25.01K
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $4.77K

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.6%
Current value: $3.25K
Potential payout: $43.04K
Potential profit: $39.79K
Multiplier: 13.25x
User PnL: -$5.12K

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $1.18K
Potential payout: $37.91K
Potential profit: $36.74K
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$16.72K

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $262.5
Potential payout: $35K
Potential profit: $34.74K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$8.49K

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $10.85K
Potential payout: $24.39K
Potential profit: $13.54K
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$5.2K

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $24.11K
Potential payout: $24.12K
Potential profit: $12.06
User PnL: $9.15K

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $329.98
Potential payout: $21.29K
Potential profit: $20.96K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$3.93K

No position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $6.67K
Potential payout: $17.79K
Potential profit: $11.12K
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $622.64

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $10.61K
Potential payout: $13.18K
Potential profit: $2.57K
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$197.71

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $7.23K
Potential payout: $12.8K
Potential profit: $5.57K
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $860.86

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $698.91
Potential payout: $12.16K
Potential profit: $11.46K
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$380.46

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $3.78K
Potential payout: $4.5K
Potential profit: $720.15
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$270.05

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $1.87K
Potential payout: $3.31K
Potential profit: $1.44K
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $80.54

Yes position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $592.83
Potential payout: $2.69K
Potential profit: $2.1K
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$644.44

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $10.83
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.65K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$30.81

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $448.89K

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200.6K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.81K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.93K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.3K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.09K

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.21K

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $69.06K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.91K

Yes position

Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.87K

No position

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.98K

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.1K

No position

Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.47K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.01K

No position

Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.16K

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.85K

Yes position

US government shutdown by October 1?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.11K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.58K

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.31K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.8K

Yes position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.52K

Braves position

Braves vs. Tigers

Ends Sep 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.25K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.96K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.91K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 61% 5,470.92 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 60% 6,233.63 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Yes 88.1% 17,110.54 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 80% 5,383.99 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 60.9% 11,123.05 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 35.8% 16,996.29 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 93% 2,830.52 shares
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

No 34% 17,789.65 shares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

No 82% 1,658.39 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Yes 83.5% 3,233.34 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Yes 87.9% 5,237.48 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Yes 86.3% 11,041.59 shares