Polymarket Trader

0x53F9dE87a41dE816daDD7103436B406c034880B7-1770817102841

0x53f9de87a41de816dadd7103436b406c034880b7

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $212.28
Realized PnL: $1.5K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $128.95
Potential payout: $1.72K
Potential profit: $1.59K
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$25.79

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $25.11
Potential payout: $179.36
Potential profit: $154.25
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$25.88

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.58
Potential profit: $41.58
User PnL: -$4.99

Yes position

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $5.05
Potential payout: $11.6
Potential profit: $6.56
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $5.1
Potential payout: $11.34
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $7.52
Potential payout: $9.89
Potential profit: $2.37
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $7.95
Potential payout: $8.04
Potential profit: $0.09
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $4.13

No position

US strike on Colombia by December 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $4.83
Potential payout: $6.32
Potential profit: $1.48
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.16

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $5.73
Potential payout: $5.94
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5.74
Potential payout: $5.75
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $5.41
Potential payout: $5.42
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.42

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $5.09
Potential payout: $5.25
Potential profit: $0.16
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $3.91
Potential payout: $4.6
Potential profit: $0.69
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.61
Potential profit: $2.61
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.08

Yes position

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $1.88
Potential payout: $1.93
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.47

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $405.12

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.32

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.05

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.97

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.67

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.6

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $50.9

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.7

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.59

No position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.41

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $32.76

No position

Weed rescheduled by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $31.35

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.36

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.49

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.41

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.04

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.16

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.8

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Yes 43% 11.6 shares
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

No 44% 11.34 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.08 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.91 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.73 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.08 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.08 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.08 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.08 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.11 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.08 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 0.08 shares