No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $7.08K
- Potential payout
- $7.43K
- Potential profit
- $349.23
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $138.88
Polymarket Trader
Laurenman
0x54a78f8c6e64572111c5683a9efeed25a04c881b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $53.26K
- Realized PnL
- $51.97K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $6.86K
- Potential payout
- $6.96K
- Potential profit
- $93.9
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $20.56
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.8%
- Current value
- $5.65K
- Potential payout
- $6.51K
- Potential profit
- $862.73
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$112.51
$60 position
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.1%
- Current value
- $4.2K
- Potential payout
- $4.94K
- Potential profit
- $738.02
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$425.01
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $4.06K
- Potential payout
- $4.42K
- Potential profit
- $353.29
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $231.01
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $4.09K
- Potential payout
- $4.16K
- Potential profit
- $72.86
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $49.84
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $3.52K
- Potential payout
- $3.54K
- Potential profit
- $23.02
- User PnL
- $38.02
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.81K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $190
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $1.96K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $41
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $1.6K
- Potential payout
- $1.96K
- Potential profit
- $362.88
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- User PnL
- -$1.23K
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.63K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- User PnL
- -$849.38
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.7%
- Current value
- $1.25K
- Potential payout
- $1.57K
- Potential profit
- $320.13
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.21
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- User PnL
- -$1.2K
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- User PnL
- -$812.4
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$940.5
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1.29K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $201.83
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $171.93
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $1.22K
- Potential payout
- $1.23K
- Potential profit
- $10.46
- User PnL
- $51.09
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: June
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $1.14K
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $72.78
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $82.25
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- User PnL
- -$1.12K
No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $521.42
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $624.56
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$245.3
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- User PnL
- -$425.9
No position
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $889.69
- Potential payout
- $972.34
- Potential profit
- $82.65
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$4.14
Y
Yes position
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?
Ends Sep 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $881.39
- Potential payout
- $957.51
- Potential profit
- $76.12
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $62.66
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.3%
- Current value
- $92.7
- Potential payout
- $900.01
- Potential profit
- $807.31
- Multiplier
- 9.71x
- User PnL
- $6.3
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $877.95
- Potential payout
- $900
- Potential profit
- $22.05
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $29.7
No position
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $859.5
- Potential payout
- $900
- Potential profit
- $40.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$4.5
No position
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Current value
- $813.34
- Potential payout
- $849
- Potential profit
- $35.66
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$5.09
No position
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $835.29
- Potential payout
- $848.87
- Potential profit
- $13.58
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $791.21
- Potential profit
- $791.21
- User PnL
- -$402.48
No position
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $393.86
- Potential payout
- $403.55
- Potential profit
- $9.69
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $6.46
Yes position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $397.71
- Potential profit
- $397.71
- User PnL
- -$218.79
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$285
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $257.33
- Potential payout
- $290.77
- Potential profit
- $33.44
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$1.45
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $283.91
- Potential payout
- $285.19
- Potential profit
- $1.28
- User PnL
- $6.33
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $234.87
- Potential payout
- $236.64
- Potential profit
- $1.77
- User PnL
- $19.52
No position
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $217.33
- Potential payout
- $228.17
- Potential profit
- $10.84
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $8.17
No position
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $158.32
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $1.68
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $4.4
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.99
- Potential profit
- $113.99
- User PnL
- -$90.06
No position
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $78.07
- Potential payout
- $78.86
- Potential profit
- $0.79
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $9.46
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.85
- Potential profit
- $53.85
- User PnL
- -$28.5
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $45.12
- Potential payout
- $47.37
- Potential profit
- $2.25
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $44.83
- Potential profit
- $44.83
- User PnL
- -$37.21
No position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.76
- Potential profit
- $41.76
- User PnL
- -$39.36
No position
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $31.28
- Potential payout
- $35.75
- Potential profit
- $4.47
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.61
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $27.33
- Potential payout
- $27.45
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.83
- Potential profit
- $14.83
- User PnL
- -$13.57
No position
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $11.92
- Potential payout
- $12.2
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.54
No position
US bank failure by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.05
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.95
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.65
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $5.84
- Potential payout
- $5.92
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Solana reach $260 September 15-21?
Ends Sep 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87K
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66K
No position
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.59K
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87K
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65K
$80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62K
No position
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.57K
Yes position
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
Ends Aug 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.47K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $999.7
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $983.02
No position
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $981.48
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $967.34
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $965.54
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $957.63
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $934.96
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $923.27
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $918.14
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $832.68
No position
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $829.77
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $823.25
No position
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $819.3
No position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $786.71
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $763.59
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $760.3
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $721.26
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $719.95
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $710.64
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $690.04
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $666.97
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $666.61
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $658.95
No position
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $651.42
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $648.06
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $620.94
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $617.78
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $608.89
Yes position
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $596.81
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $586.15
No position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $575.39
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $574.79
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $574.15
No position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $569.31
No position
US forces enter Iran by February 28?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $568.74
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 89% 290.77 shares
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 96% 900 shares
- Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 98.4% 848.87 shares
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?No 82.4% 1,189.39 shares
- Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?Yes 87% 20 shares
- Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?Yes 86% 401.19 shares
- Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?Yes 85.1% 536.32 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No 96% 6.22 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 79% 400 shares
- Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No 96% 403.55 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 79% 4,717 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?Yes 86% 961 shares