Yes position
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $6.54
- Potential payout
- $769.23
- Potential profit
- $762.69
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$3.46
Polymarket Trader
lieberallein
0x54c581a308343c28cf741093c5911070e1d1a121
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $731.44
- Realized PnL
- $585.66
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $187.92
- Potential payout
- $736.93
- Potential profit
- $549.02
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $22.16
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $61.99
- Potential payout
- $729.24
- Potential profit
- $667.25
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $17.2
Yes position
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $4.72
- Potential payout
- $555.56
- Potential profit
- $550.83
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
Yes position
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Ends Jan 3, 2027- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $110.61
- Potential payout
- $356.82
- Potential profit
- $246.21
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- $0.72
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $78.1
- Potential payout
- $256.06
- Potential profit
- $177.96
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$6.9
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $87.64
- Potential payout
- $166.93
- Potential profit
- $79.29
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $14.44
No position
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $14.34
- Potential payout
- $98.9
- Potential profit
- $84.56
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $4.34
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $80.42
- Potential payout
- $88.86
- Potential profit
- $8.44
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $35.09
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $46.7
- Potential payout
- $57.66
- Potential profit
- $10.96
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $16.7
No position
António Guterres out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $12.46
- Potential payout
- $16.95
- Potential profit
- $4.49
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $2.46
No position
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 56%
- Current value
- $9.08
- Potential payout
- $16.21
- Potential profit
- $7.13
- Multiplier
- 1.79x
- User PnL
- $3.08
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $9.82
- Potential payout
- $12.05
- Potential profit
- $2.23
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $3.37
- Potential payout
- $7.93
- Potential profit
- $4.56
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
Ends Jan 3, 2027- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $4
- Potential payout
- $7.02
- Potential profit
- $3.02
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $5.69
- Potential payout
- $6.58
- Potential profit
- $0.89
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.69
No position
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Current value
- $3.58
- Potential payout
- $5.26
- Potential profit
- $1.68
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $0.58
No position
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $4.47
- Potential payout
- $4.71
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.27
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.08
No position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.55
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.18
Yes position
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.24
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.09
Yes position
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.35
Yes position
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.55
Yes position
Lily Phillips has sex with 1000+ men in a day?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.03
No position
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.23
Yes position
Lily Phillips sex event cancelled?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.54
No position
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.87
No position
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.98
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.81
Yes position
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.76
Yes position
Will the Progress Party (FrP) win 22% or more of vote in Norwegian election?
Ends Sep 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.64
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $10.59
Yes position
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?
Ends Mar 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.52
Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.34
No position
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.25
No position
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.02
No position
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.04
Yes position
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference?
Ends Jan 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.68
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.66x
- User PnL
- $8.33
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?No 58% 17.24 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 69% 14.49 shares
- Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?No 10.1% 98.9 shares
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 94% 15 shares
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 66.7% 15 shares
- Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Yes 97.7% 15.87 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 6% 17 shares
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 24% 17 shares
- Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes 24% 10.42 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No 38% 6.58 shares
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 68% 14.71 shares
- Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No 96.4% 36.32 shares