Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $55.97
- Potential payout
- $3.61K
- Potential profit
- $3.56K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$41.52
Polymarket Trader
a4esniw
0x55d3e77b9f55f6d28f92f7bcdc5c89d5678ddaff
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $380.2
- Realized PnL
- $2.15K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $2.23
- Potential payout
- $1.49K
- Potential profit
- $1.48K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$147.77
Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $43.4
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $956.6
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- $3.4
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $423.77
- Potential profit
- $423.14
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$114.16
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $320.51
- Potential profit
- $320.51
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $48.44
- Potential payout
- $312.5
- Potential profit
- $264.06
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$51.56
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $307.63
- Potential profit
- $307.63
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.9%
- Current value
- $54.45
- Potential payout
- $228.31
- Potential profit
- $173.86
- Multiplier
- 4.19x
- User PnL
- $4.45
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.8%
- Current value
- $36.41
- Potential payout
- $217.35
- Potential profit
- $180.94
- Multiplier
- 5.97x
- User PnL
- -$63.59
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.1%
- Current value
- $55.25
- Potential payout
- $212.11
- Potential profit
- $156.85
- Multiplier
- 3.84x
- User PnL
- -$44.75
Yes position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $1.52
- Potential payout
- $178.57
- Potential profit
- $177.05
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$48.48
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $165.33
- Potential profit
- $165.33
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $164.35
- Potential profit
- $164.35
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $7.82
- Potential payout
- $154.86
- Potential profit
- $147.04
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- -$42.18
Yes position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $153.85
- Potential profit
- $153.85
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $138.25
- Potential profit
- $138.25
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $50.19
- Potential payout
- $128.87
- Potential profit
- $78.67
- Multiplier
- 2.57x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $23.88
- Potential payout
- $40.82
- Potential profit
- $16.94
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $3.88
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $257.14
No position
Will CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $232.46
No position
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $203.26
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- $196.17
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $151.49
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.03
Yes position
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.56
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.19
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $112.18
No position
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.52
Yes position
Will Eric Adams drop out?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.22
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.33
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $68.52
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.87
Yes position
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.02
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.59
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $46.43
No position
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.06
Yes position
Will Truist Financial (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
California voter ID referendum passes?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 44%
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.1
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $5.24
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.7%
- Multiplier
- 10.36x
- User PnL
- $3.18
Yes position
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?No 74% 136.98 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No 21.7% 138.25 shares
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 6.5% 508.47 shares
- Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes 28% 178.57 shares
- Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 1.9% 1,500 shares
- California voter ID referendum passes?Yes 48% 41.66 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ETUp 1% 1,000 shares
- Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 77000?No 49.3% 202.88 shares
- Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?No 73% 136.99 shares
- Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 77000?No 47% 425.23 shares
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes 39% 110.71 shares
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?No 24.1% 227.27 shares