Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $50K
- User PnL
- -$49.48K
Polymarket Trader
TwoTierKeir
0x560259988aa71630f4f7cc702008602391e41480
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $30.02K
- Realized PnL
- $27.25K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.27K
- Potential profit
- $23.27K
- User PnL
- -$719.83
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $14.57K
- Potential payout
- $15.18K
- Potential profit
- $614.83
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $762.63
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.8K
- Potential payout
- $10.83K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $715.39
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24.2%
- Current value
- $1.21K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $3.79K
- Multiplier
- 4.14x
- User PnL
- -$12.5
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $4K
- User PnL
- -$142
No position
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$450
Yes position
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$57.89
Makhmudov position
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$280
No position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $1.7K
- Potential payout
- $1.72K
- Potential profit
- $18.87
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $194.19
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $1.45K
- Potential payout
- $1.46K
- Potential profit
- $10.94
- User PnL
- $91.15
No position
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- User PnL
- -$9.29
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.9%
- Current value
- $608.49
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $391.5
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- $292.5
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $800
- User PnL
- -$712
Yes position
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $743.96
- Potential profit
- $743.96
- User PnL
- -$654.8
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $699
- Potential profit
- $699
- User PnL
- -$139.1
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $698.2
- Potential profit
- $698.2
- User PnL
- -$691.22
No position
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $318
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $282
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$79
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$325
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$165
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$240
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $446.2
- Potential profit
- $446.2
- User PnL
- -$2.23
No position
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $379.59
- Potential payout
- $394.99
- Potential profit
- $15.4
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $31.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.77K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.54K
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.37K
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04K
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
Yes position
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
Yes position
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $489.81
Yes position
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $419.43
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $378.64
Yes position
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $340.55
No position
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $311.25
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.7
Yes position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $289.31
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $268.52
Yes position
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $268.51
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.8
Yes position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $254.37
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $248.25
Yes position
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.12
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $174.79
Yes position
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.72
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.31
No position
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No 68.9% 5,382.08 shares
- Epstein suicide note released by May 8?No 99.7% 10,000 shares
- Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Yes 10.5% 141.21 shares
- Critical Discord Incident by May 31?Yes 40% 150 shares
- Critical Discord Incident by May 31?Yes 40% 200 shares
- Critical Discord Incident by May 31?Yes 78% 600 shares
- Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes 99.3% 2,793.58 shares
- QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?Yes 99.7% 17,280 shares
- Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Yes 99.8% 26,459.69 shares
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?Yes 94.3% 3,352.93 shares
- Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?No 99.8% 7,969.88 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes 99.8% 3,000 shares