0x5631...3553

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $64.84
Potential profit: $64.48
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$5.64

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $36.4
Potential profit: $31.48
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.09

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $27.33
Potential profit: $27.19
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.86

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $23.77
Potential payout: $23.88
Potential profit: $0.12
User PnL: $9.14

Yes position

Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $18.86
Potential profit: $18.37
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$2.51

Yes position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.55
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$0.88

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $14.32
Potential payout: $14.82
Potential profit: $0.5
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $11.99
Potential payout: $12.01
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.73
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: -$0.62

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.39
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $10.67
Potential profit: $10.45
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$1.79

Yes position

Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $8.71
Potential payout: $8.82
Potential profit: $0.11
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $7.87
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $2.72
Potential payout: $7.66
Potential profit: $4.94
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$1.28

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $6.36
Potential payout: $6.42
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $1.06

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $0.47
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.41
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 59.6%
Current value: $3.23
Potential payout: $5.41
Potential profit: $2.19
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $1.17
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.83
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $4
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $3.52
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $0.91
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $3.58
Potential profit: $3.56
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.6%
Current value: $3.17
Potential payout: $3.46
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $3.2
Potential payout: $3.22
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.97

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.51

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.68

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.19

Mert Alkaya position

Abidjan: Massimo Giunta vs Mert Alkaya

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.77

No position

Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.04

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.49

No position

Will EC Bahia win on 2026-04-25?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.31

Daniel Galan position

Savannah: Daniel Galan vs Stefan Dostanic

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.77

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.63

Yanki Erel position

Abidjan: Blaise Bicknell vs Yanki Erel

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.27

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.83

No position

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.05

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $80 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $2.99

Yes position

Will CD Riestra win on 2026-04-24?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.93

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.58

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.44

Elmer Moeller position

Madrid Open: Elmer Moeller vs Gabriel Diallo

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.36

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23

No position

Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

Hanwha Life Esports position

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.66

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.64

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?