molodoyy

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $139.14
Potential payout: $6.18K
Potential profit: $6.04K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$103.21

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $48.94
Potential payout: $3.26K
Potential profit: $3.21K
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$306.11

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $26.44
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.58K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$44.12

No position

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $870.16
Potential payout: $1.55K
Potential profit: $683.7
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: $259.99

Yes position

Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $7.72
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $1.28K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$10.42

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $8.82
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $1.25K
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: $3.87

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $87.8
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.17K
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$119.62

Yes position

Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $5.88
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.17K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$22.42

Yes position

Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $1.05K
User PnL: -$22.25

No position

Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $842.49
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $178.71
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $142.46

Yes position

Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $5.05
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$26.17

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $992.5
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $998
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $998.5
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 18.7%
Current value: $186.49
Potential payout: $999.95
Potential profit: $813.46
Multiplier: 5.36x
User PnL: $133.69

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $166.11
Potential payout: $949.19
Potential profit: $783.08
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $94.65

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $504.7
Potential payout: $742.21
Potential profit: $237.51
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $105.71

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $12.9
Potential payout: $697.31
Potential profit: $684.41
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 91.9%
Current value: $636.8
Potential payout: $692.92
Potential profit: $56.13
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $91.99

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $534.29
Potential payout: $593.65
Potential profit: $59.37
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $20.18

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $7.11
Potential payout: $527
Potential profit: $519.88
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$90.59

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $432.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $67.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $420.99
Potential payout: $483.9
Potential profit: $62.91
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: -$13.16

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in Play Store on December 19?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $927.04

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $887.31

No position

Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $497.93

Yes position

Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $472.32

Yes position

Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $470.22

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $428.35

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $411.59

Yes position

Will "Melania" score at least 10 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $401.24

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $388.65

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $386.5

No position

Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $363.48

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $342.17

Yes position

Will GPT win the okbet trading competition?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $338.63

No position

Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $333.99

No position

Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.89

Yes position

Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $328.37

Yes position

Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $311.76

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $303.63

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second-best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $290.75

Yes position

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $276.88

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?