Yes position
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.17
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $8.16
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Polymarket Trader
RollerPennies
0x565420673a3b8f1e3ce8c3fd16171982e2b0a5d5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0.68
- Realized PnL
- $6.76
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54
- Potential profit
- $1.54
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.8%
- Current value
- $0.51
- Potential payout
- $1.19
- Potential profit
- $0.68
- Multiplier
- 2.34x
- User PnL
- -$0.49
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- $1.62
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
OpenAI position
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- $0.22
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Y
Yes position
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.84x
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Will Bessent say "Stock Market" during Press Briefing?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.16
N
No position
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.16
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30?No 91% 1.26 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?No 63% 4.16 shares
- Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?No 87% 1.33 shares
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No 86% 1.38 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?No 24% 4.17 shares
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No 72% 1.39 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?No 91% 1.28 shares
- Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?No 75% 1.33 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?No 78% 1.28 shares
- Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June?No 94% 1.29 shares
- Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30?No 98.9% 1.2 shares
- Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Yes 12% 8.33 shares