No position
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $2.03K
- Potential payout
- $2.16K
- Potential profit
- $135.25
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $44.99
Polymarket Trader
Oliver1978
0x565e2a6c5f7a82a439cf70ff6a331071f95e875d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $10.29K
- Realized PnL
- $1.82K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.91K
- Potential profit
- $1.91K
- User PnL
- -$75.94
No position
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54%
- Current value
- $999.29
- Potential payout
- $1.85K
- Potential profit
- $851.25
- Multiplier
- 1.85x
- User PnL
- $90.4
No position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $1.21K
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $4.84
- User PnL
- $7.75
No position
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $845.51
- Potential payout
- $971.85
- Potential profit
- $126.34
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $12.76
No position
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.2%
- Current value
- $760.7
- Potential payout
- $834.56
- Potential profit
- $73.86
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $54.56
No position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $568.53
- Potential payout
- $614.63
- Potential profit
- $46.1
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $19.76
No position
Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $400.65
- Potential payout
- $597.99
- Potential profit
- $197.34
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- -$19.16
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 25%
- Current value
- $113.81
- Potential payout
- $455.24
- Potential profit
- $341.43
- Multiplier
- 4.00x
- User PnL
- $45.3
No position
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $426.43
- Potential payout
- $433.15
- Potential profit
- $6.71
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $26.43
No position
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $338.2
- Potential payout
- $409.94
- Potential profit
- $71.74
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $37.2
No position
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $337.96
- Potential payout
- $340
- Potential profit
- $2.04
- User PnL
- $13.36
No position
Obama arrested before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.4%
- Current value
- $313.98
- Potential payout
- $336.17
- Potential profit
- $22.19
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $11.43
No position
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $235.34
- Potential payout
- $301.71
- Potential profit
- $66.38
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $6.92
No position
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $297.75
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $2.25
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $198.41
- Potential payout
- $289.65
- Potential profit
- $91.24
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$1.45
No position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $280.88
- Potential payout
- $285.88
- Potential profit
- $5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $22.73
No position
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $218.53
- Potential payout
- $229.19
- Potential profit
- $10.66
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $18.53
No position
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $209.21
- Potential payout
- $211.64
- Potential profit
- $2.43
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $9.21
No position
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $141.58
- Potential payout
- $188.78
- Potential profit
- $47.19
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- -$12.86
No position
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Current value
- $42.55
- Potential payout
- $185
- Potential profit
- $142.45
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- -$28.8
No position
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $114.06
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $35.94
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $27.06
No position
Will Burundi have an Ebola case in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $78.07
- Potential payout
- $148.7
- Potential profit
- $70.63
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$2.23
No position
US bank failure by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $132.21
- Potential payout
- $139.17
- Potential profit
- $6.96
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $33.56
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $218.65
Yes position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.25
No position
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.92
Yes position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.79
No position
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.75
Yes position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.41
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $101.37
No position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.5
Yes position
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.61
No position
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.6
No position
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.23
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.27
Yes position
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $53.99
Yes position
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.99
Yes position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.01
Yes position
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $340-$345 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 20 – Apr 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.75
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.8
No position
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.72
No position
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.77
No position
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.3
Yes position
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.11
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.97
No position
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.58
No position
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No 93% 270.49 shares
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No 93.1% 20 shares
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?Yes 72% 32 shares
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?Yes 73% 68 shares
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No 99% 1,208.45 shares
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?Yes 44% 16.34 shares
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes 31% 25.32 shares
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No 47% 75.26 shares
- Ebola case in the US by June 30?No 89% 39 shares
- US bank failure by June 30?No 91% 170 shares
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No 15.7% 111.38 shares
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No 97.8% 183 shares