tomkat07

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $5.32
Potential payout: $393.93
Potential profit: $388.62
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$6.68

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $13.33
Potential payout: $88.88
Potential profit: $75.55
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $5.33

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $79.84
Potential profit: $79.24
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$3.66

Yes position

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $7
Potential payout: $46.66
Potential profit: $39.66
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.51
Potential payout: $40.82
Potential profit: $40.31
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$2.27

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $3.86
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $24.71
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $1.74
Potential payout: $27.33
Potential profit: $25.59
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $5.59
Potential payout: $27.27
Potential profit: $21.68
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Implied probability: 15.4%
Current value: $3.51
Potential payout: $22.86
Potential profit: $19.35
Multiplier: 6.51x
User PnL: -$4.49

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $22.35
Potential profit: $20.9
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.41

No position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 48.1%
Current value: $8.89
Potential payout: $18.51
Potential profit: $9.62
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $4.18
Potential payout: $13.09
Potential profit: $8.91
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $7.04
Potential payout: $11.94
Potential profit: $4.9
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: -$0.96

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $11.12
Potential profit: $7.17
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $2.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.75
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $4.8
Potential profit: $4.25
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $4.67
Potential profit: $3.65
Multiplier: 4.56x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $1.23
Potential payout: $3.71
Potential profit: $2.49
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $2.03
Potential payout: $2.88
Potential profit: $0.85
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $1.14
Potential profit: $0.44
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17%
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $3.58

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $2.01

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.50x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.29

Yes position

Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 61.5%
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 78.1%
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 18.9%
Multiplier: 5.31x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 32.3%
Multiplier: 3.10x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10.1%
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 40.5%
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$0.16

No position

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 44.5%
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 42.5%
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?