Yes position
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $1.57K
- Potential payout
- $20.95K
- Potential profit
- $19.38K
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$880.88
Polymarket Trader
UniversalCarrier
0x56b17d09dc4781fd49734c224091145ca9180e9f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.63K
- Realized PnL
- -$168.95
- Win rate
- 36.4%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $1.69K
- Potential payout
- $8.23K
- Potential profit
- $6.55K
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $155.3
Yes position
NATO article 5 before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $352.42
- Potential payout
- $5.03K
- Potential profit
- $4.68K
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$119.95
Yes position
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.1%
- Current value
- $6.64
- Potential payout
- $108.9
- Potential profit
- $102.26
- Multiplier
- 16.39x
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.06
- Potential payout
- $32.26
- Potential profit
- $32.19
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.94
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $5.3
- Potential payout
- $32.13
- Potential profit
- $26.83
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $1.06
- Potential payout
- $1.25
- Potential profit
- $0.19
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $1.07
- Potential payout
- $1.15
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $1.08
- Potential payout
- $1.12
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $1.08
- Potential payout
- $1.12
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $1.1
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.07
- Potential payout
- $1.08
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $1.04
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.97
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Major US official out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 27?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 28?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 28?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Ends Oct 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.52
Yes position
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.61
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 28?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$9.92
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13.91
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$26.52
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$51
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$74.77
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Yes 10% 34 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 5.3% 40 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 13.9% 10 shares
- US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 6.9% 30 shares
- US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 7% 20 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 22% 102.32 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No 31% 30 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 84% 1.21 shares
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No 97.7% 1.04 shares
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Yes 13% 700 shares
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Yes 13% 1,500 shares
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Yes 13% 100 shares