No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $58.87K
- Potential payout
- $69.67K
- Potential profit
- $10.8K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $14.7K
Polymarket Trader
just.some.guy.2026
0x56ebe2a8eb1b9bccfd3059f981f9c987e45e076a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $143.96K
- Realized PnL
- $196.82K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $41.28K
- Potential payout
- $47.18K
- Potential profit
- $5.9K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $5.9K
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $14.81K
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $187.5
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.11K
No position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $6.69K
- Potential payout
- $11.84K
- Potential profit
- $5.15K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$456.39
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $8.84K
- Potential payout
- $8.95K
- Potential profit
- $111.89
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.45K
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $3.5K
- Potential payout
- $6.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.7K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$217.68
No position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $3.22K
- Potential payout
- $5.81K
- Potential profit
- $2.59K
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$91.6
Yes position
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.4%
- Current value
- $280.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.72K
- Multiplier
- 10.70x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $1.46K
- Potential payout
- $2.59K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $64.57
No position
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $1.99K
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $408
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $282.01
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $1.33K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $670.02
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $18.71
No position
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$1.01K
Yes position
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Ends Jan 3, 2027- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $648.46
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $746.07
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $288.98
Senegal position
Spread: France (-1.5)
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$610
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $344.9
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $655.1
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $34.9
Yes position
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$380
No position
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$180
Yes position
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $675
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $325
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will France win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$340
Milwaukee Brewers position
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$559.99
Colorado Rockies position
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.95
- Potential profit
- $999.95
- User PnL
- -$409.98
South Africa position
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $750
- User PnL
- -$315
Philadelphia Phillies position
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $677
- Potential profit
- $677
- User PnL
- -$331.46
Under position
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$230
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.71K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $24.37K
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.43K
No position
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.82K
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.03K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.33K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.92K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.57K
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.88K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.78K
No position
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.33K
Under position
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.95K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.66K
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.57K
No position
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.76K
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.68K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.65K
No position
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.88K
Yes position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61K
Yes position
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.35K
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.27K
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.49K
Yes position
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.44K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?No 59% 500 shares
- Spread: Norway (-2.5)Iraq 63% 500 shares
- Spread: Norway (-1.5)Iraq 40% 500 shares
- Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?No 18% 1,000 shares
- Spread: France (-1.5)Senegal 61% 1,000 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-16?No 34% 999.99 shares
- Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?No 35% 1,000 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 71% 1,881.01 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 88% 200 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No 72% 1,754.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 12.8% 2,379.5 shares
- Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Yes 38% 1,000 shares