Aikos

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $12.04
Potential payout: $370.37
Potential profit: $358.33
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: $2.04

Yes position

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $11.41
Potential payout: $345.81
Potential profit: $334.4
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: $1.41

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $335.36
Potential profit: $335.19
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.83

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $15.65
Potential payout: $326.02
Potential profit: $310.37
Multiplier: 20.83x
User PnL: -$54.35

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $312.5
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 17.6%
Current value: $48.75
Potential payout: $277.78
Potential profit: $229.03
Multiplier: 5.70x
User PnL: $38.75

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $10.09
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $171.73
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: -$9.91

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $7.81
Potential payout: $173.61
Potential profit: $165.8
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$7.19

Yes position

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $5.66
Potential payout: $168.89
Potential profit: $163.24
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$14.34

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.58
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.92

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $11.67
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $155
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$8.33

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.58
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.92

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $9.88
Potential payout: $145.25
Potential profit: $135.37
Multiplier: 14.71x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $117.47
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$19.82

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $6.66
Potential payout: $116.88
Potential profit: $110.22
Multiplier: 17.54x
User PnL: -$8.34

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $112.78
Potential profit: $112.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$9.72

Yes position

XRP all time high by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $102.68
Potential profit: $102.63
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.95

Yes position

Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $87.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $82.29
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$8.96

Yes position

Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.21
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$9.88

Yes position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $4.46
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $72.46
Multiplier: 17.24x
User PnL: -$5.54

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $449.38

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.01

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.73

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.84

Yes position

Will XRP reach $2.40 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.63

Yes position

Megaquake by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.45

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on July 28?

Ends Jul 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.56

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $34.84

Yes position

Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.46

Yes position

US bank failure by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.33

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.07

Yes position

Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 28?

Ends Jul 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.8

Yes position

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.25

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.57

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.47

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.35

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.01

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.03

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.52

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET