0x57097A9E66Dc5BCe77E6685812ed50EaeA2722c3-1768623287709

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $1.49K
Potential payout: $3.15K
Potential profit: $1.65K
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$13.74

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $526.26
Potential payout: $2.66K
Potential profit: $2.14K
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: -$819.98

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $1.72K
Potential payout: $1.85K
Potential profit: $129.53
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $251.4

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $8.91
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $1.26K
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$209.07

Yes position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $66.54
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: -$338.08

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $800.61
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $450.35
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: -$116.88

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $1K
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $149.59
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $387.27

Yes position

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $8.72
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $1.08K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$233.41

Yes position

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $128.37
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $898.62
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$98.1

Yes position

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $110
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $890
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $999.96
Potential profit: $997.96
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$22

Yes position

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $19.99
Potential payout: $999.56
Potential profit: $979.56
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$79.96

Yes position

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $133.23
Potential payout: $720.14
Potential profit: $586.91
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$104.42

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $27.64
Potential payout: $690.88
Potential profit: $663.24
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$277.33

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 11.2%
Current value: $76.57
Potential payout: $683.69
Potential profit: $607.12
Multiplier: 8.93x
User PnL: -$23.02

Yes position

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30?

Implied probability: 11.2%
Current value: $67.2
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $532.8
Multiplier: 8.93x
User PnL: -$34.8

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $85.88
Potential payout: $592.27
Potential profit: $506.39
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$72.11

Yes position

Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 34%
Current value: $188.93
Potential payout: $555.67
Potential profit: $366.74
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: $25.14

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $60.04
Potential payout: $545.83
Potential profit: $485.79
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$91.84

Yes position

Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $52.75
Potential payout: $458.69
Potential profit: $405.94
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$36.39

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $262.94
Potential payout: $427.55
Potential profit: $164.61
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $76.71

Yes position

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $32.19
Potential payout: $149.71
Potential profit: $117.53
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$12.53

Yes position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $12.35
Potential payout: $129.99
Potential profit: $117.64
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$8.45

Yes position

Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $17.32
Potential payout: $128.29
Potential profit: $110.97
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$11.39

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27K

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $747.64

Yes position

Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $690.09

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $492.59

Yes position

Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $392.52

Yes position

Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $329.5

Yes position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $325.49

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $305.12

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $293.3

Yes position

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $276.13

Yes position

Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $242.49

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $238.99

Yes position

Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.5

Yes position

Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.6

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $186

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.08

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164

Yes position

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.74

No position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?