jeffkatsu

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.47
Potential payout: $44.43
Potential profit: $43.96
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$3.57

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $44.43
Potential profit: $44.23
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$3.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 85°F or below on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $44.43
Potential profit: $44.32
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$3.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $41.83
Potential profit: $41.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $41.83
Potential profit: $41.68
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$3.66

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $41.83
Potential profit: $41.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $41.83
Potential profit: $41.54
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$3.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $39.43
Potential profit: $39.33
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$3.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $38.38
Potential profit: $38.36
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $36.83
Potential profit: $36.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $34.9
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$3.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $34.95
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$3.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $34.97
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$3.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or below on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $34.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $34.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$8.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $34.97
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$3.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $34.93
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$3.11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $34.43
Potential profit: $34.36
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$3.06

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $33.88
Potential profit: $33.86
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$17.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $31.83
Potential profit: $31.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $31.83
Potential profit: $31.7
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $5.89
Potential payout: $31.83
Potential profit: $25.94
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $2.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C or below on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.97
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$2.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or higher on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.92
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.64
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$2.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.91
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$2.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $1.18
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $28.58
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$1.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 38°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.22
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $29.53
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $29.64
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$2.59

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $29.41
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$2.36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $29.7
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$2.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $29.68
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.63

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 39°C or higher on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $29.67
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$2.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C or below on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $29.76
Potential profit: $29.74
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $9.87
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $15.12
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $7.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $3.09
Potential payout: $24.76
Potential profit: $21.66
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $24.58
Potential profit: $24.47
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $446.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 3?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $389.24

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $284.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 2?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.14

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $248.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $239.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $233.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $233.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $231.01

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $228.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $218.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 8?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $215.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $201.92

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $196.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $186.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.46

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8?

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $178.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on April 1?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $173.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $170.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 2?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 2?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $159.59

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $159.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.86

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 2?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 3?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 2?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 4?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $152.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.43

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $151.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $151.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $151.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on April 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $145.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 2?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $145.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $144.95

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $143.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 4?