Polymarket Trader

aelrinn

0x5710828be2647d833fcbb7c016072229dcc55a7a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $203.37
Realized PnL: $645.19
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $326.35
Potential profit: $326.35
User PnL: -$139.3

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $325.66
Potential profit: $325.66
User PnL: -$215

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.3
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.3

No position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $104.66
Potential payout: $137.71
Potential profit: $33.05
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $14.66

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $137.66
Potential profit: $137.66
User PnL: -$70

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $40.28
Potential payout: $92.59
Potential profit: $52.31
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$9.72

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $38.17
Potential payout: $67.57
Potential profit: $29.4
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$11.83

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.61
Potential profit: $20.61
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $7.82
Potential payout: $14.08
Potential profit: $6.27
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$2.18

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.8%
Current value: $11.75
Potential payout: $13.09
Potential profit: $1.34
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.99
Potential profit: $12.99
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.42
Potential profit: $10.42
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.43
Potential profit: $9.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.77
Potential profit: $8.77
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.62
Potential profit: $8.62
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.46
Potential profit: $7.46
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.1
Potential profit: $6.1
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $361.81

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.57

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.83

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.27

No position

Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.76

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.57

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.63

No position

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $12.98

Yes position

Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.94

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.55

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.48

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $5.48

No position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.75

No position

Iran leadership change by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.18

Yes position

Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.55

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.07

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2

No position

Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.98

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.67

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 0.5% 200 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 54% 92.59 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

No 74% 67.57 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 81% 6.17 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Down 35% 14.29 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Down 79% 6.33 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 44.4% 112.66 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 94% 10.64 shares
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 57% 8.77 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Yes 58% 8.62 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?

Yes 82% 6.1 shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 59% 16.95 shares