0x5795...30fa

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $68.18
Potential payout: $13.64K
Potential profit: $13.57K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$53.88

Yes position

Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $41.99
Potential payout: $12K
Potential profit: $11.96K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$16.39

Yes position

Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $14.35
Potential payout: $3.19K
Potential profit: $3.17K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$2.9

Yes position

Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $11.14
Potential payout: $2.48K
Potential profit: $2.46K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$5.4

No position

Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.16
Potential payout: $463.83
Potential profit: $462.67
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$4.22

Yes position

Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $113.88
Potential profit: $113.49
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$1.77

Yes position

Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $109.2
Potential profit: $109.04
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.47

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Ends Oct 28, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $2.99
Potential payout: $106.86
Potential profit: $103.87
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $87.14
Potential payout: $88.38
Potential profit: $1.24
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $3.07

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 77.6%
Current value: $43.01
Potential payout: $55.42
Potential profit: $12.41
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $5.98

Yes position

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Ends Oct 28, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $21.18
Potential payout: $55.02
Potential profit: $33.84
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $9.68

No position

Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 86.3%
Current value: $44.54
Potential payout: $51.64
Potential profit: $7.1
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $3.39

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Ends Oct 28, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $2.64
Potential payout: $45.21
Potential profit: $42.57
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $42.28
Potential profit: $41.38
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$2.48

No position

Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $36.07
Potential payout: $36.49
Potential profit: $0.42
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $6.77
Potential payout: $32.25
Potential profit: $25.47
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$3.32

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $30.4
Potential profit: $26.91
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$3.92

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 18.7%
Current value: $4.33
Potential payout: $23.22
Potential profit: $18.89
Multiplier: 5.36x
User PnL: $0.99

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $22.77
Potential profit: $21.79
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: -$0.43

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $4.46
Potential payout: $19.81
Potential profit: $15.35
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $1.29

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $15.71
Potential payout: $19.53
Potential profit: $3.82
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $5.16
Potential payout: $18.75
Potential profit: $13.6
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $15.46
Potential payout: $16.13
Potential profit: $0.67
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $15.04
Potential payout: $15.08
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $0.26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $708.64

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $349.88

No position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $161.35

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.2

Yes position

Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.65

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.48

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.34

Yes position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.53

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.31

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.33

Yes position

Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.55

No position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.56

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $34.7

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.07

No position

US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.6

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.38

No position

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.01

No position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.61

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.44

No position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.03

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.26

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?