Yes position
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$40.87
Polymarket Trader
tocr
0x5838589bdaf1580271a05e72d71aacf716cc3636
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $713.52
- Realized PnL
- $5.07K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the October meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $739.71
- Potential profit
- $739.71
- User PnL
- -$146.07
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $9.56
- Potential payout
- $616.68
- Potential profit
- $607.12
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$5.31
No position
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $530.83
- Potential payout
- $590.14
- Potential profit
- $59.31
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $54.52
Yes position
Will the European Union win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the December meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$15.75
Yes position
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $344.3
- Potential profit
- $344.3
- User PnL
- -$44.5
Yes position
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the October meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$1.11
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.6%
- Current value
- $23.74
- Potential payout
- $248.54
- Potential profit
- $224.8
- Multiplier
- 10.47x
- User PnL
- $16.01
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $207.88
- Potential profit
- $207.88
- User PnL
- -$23.1
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$39
No position
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $179.98
- Potential profit
- $179.98
- User PnL
- -$88.49
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $170.25
- Potential profit
- $170.25
- User PnL
- -$1.49
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $148
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $12
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $15.7
No position
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$18.5
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$22.11
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $140
- User PnL
- -$1.12
Yes position
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.85
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $129.16
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $130
- User PnL
- -$101.43
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $114.97
- Potential profit
- $114.97
- User PnL
- -$10.35
No position
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.51
- Potential profit
- $113.51
- User PnL
- -$43
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $110.59
- Potential profit
- $110.59
- User PnL
- -$4.52
Yes position
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.45
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $590.21
No position
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?
Ends Nov 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $540.62
Yes position
Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $452.55
Yes position
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?
Ends Oct 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $399.76
Yes position
Trudeau resigns before February?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $320.43
No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $318.62
Yes position
Canada election called before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $292.17
Yes position
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $276.81
No position
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?
Ends Dec 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $210.81
Yes position
Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?
Ends Oct 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.08
No position
Will Elon register the America Party in July?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.75
No position
Canada backs out of F-35 deal?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.38
No position
Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.29
Yes position
Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.83
Yes position
Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104
No position
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $99
No position
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 15?
Ends Jan 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.92
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.16
No position
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.57
Yes position
Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.72
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92
No position
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $87.94
Yes position
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $85.35
No position
US recession in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will United States win on 2026-06-12?No 51% 5 shares
- Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Yes 53% 10 shares
- Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?Yes 38% 5 shares
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No 87.8% 1,000 shares
- Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?No 46.7% 100 shares
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No 89.6% 27.4 shares
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No 87.6% 1,180.72 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No 86% 20 shares
- Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?No 95% 50 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 59% 10 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No 76% 20 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Yes 13% 48.26 shares