IceLightning

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $72.54
Potential profit: $67.82
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$30.1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $53.87
Potential payout: $57.61
Potential profit: $3.74
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $26.88

Yes position

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.83
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.13

Yes position

Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $1.14
Potential payout: $41.37
Potential profit: $40.23
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Brex IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $39.42
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$2.74

Yes position

Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $36.45
Potential profit: $34.81
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$4.92

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.44
Potential payout: $32.1
Potential profit: $30.66
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$1.89

Yes position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $2.66
Potential payout: $20.43
Potential profit: $17.77
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$1.56

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.7
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Glean IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.3
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $2.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.9
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.36
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$1.16

Yes position

Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.21
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$0.59

Yes position

Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.43
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$3.23

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $12.5
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$5.3

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $14.13
Potential payout: $15.11
Potential profit: $0.98
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $6.53

Yes position

Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $1.48
Potential payout: $14.76
Potential profit: $13.29
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $12.6
Potential profit: $12.37
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: $0.04

Down position

Solana Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.55
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.15
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.95

Up position

Solana Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $6.73
Potential payout: $7.05
Potential profit: $0.32
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $0.32
Potential payout: $5.51
Potential profit: $5.19
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $0.02

Down position

BNB Up or Down on July 2?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $2.73
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.28
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $0.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $690.97

Up position

XRP Up or Down - April 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $669.99

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $630.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $584.81

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $493.99

Down position

XRP Up or Down - April 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $455.8

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $450.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $443.18

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $397.01

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $395.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $383.38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $376.22

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $338.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $329.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $315.4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $299.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $297.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $293.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $285.38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281.24

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET