0x586faba6C2096aE2d30F4de99AaE2610f45fe191-1767709317989

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 28?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on January 22?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on January 19?

Ends Jan 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $666.67
Potential profit: $666.67
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $569.99
Potential profit: $569.99
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US stagflation in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $557.41
Potential profit: $557.41
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $514.93
Potential profit: $514.93
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 8?

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $281.5
Potential profit: $281.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 20?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.9%?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$1

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 6?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $159.29
Potential profit: $159.29
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.54

Djokovic position

Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.68

Yes position

Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.98

Zverev position

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.44

Yes position

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.25

Yes position

Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Yes position

Will Gareth Southgate be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.15

Yes position

Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.98

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: $1.64

Yes position

Will the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.54

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.46

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: $1.35

Yes position

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?