No position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $1.17K
- Potential payout
- $5.87K
- Potential profit
- $4.7K
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- $471.85
Polymarket Trader
Drunken-Mentat
0x588ce22fb2bf698e5a3f61447a44b3afe0ad1bf4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $10.2K
- Realized PnL
- $7.08K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $268.65
- Potential payout
- $2.56K
- Potential profit
- $2.29K
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$284.66
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $877.66
- Potential payout
- $1.81K
- Potential profit
- $931.95
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$212.25
No position
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $530.5
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $732.59
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- $47.23
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $892.66
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $145.32
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $84.02
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $981.06
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $25.16
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $64.72
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $470
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $530
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- -$10.85
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $204.62
- Potential payout
- $786.98
- Potential profit
- $582.37
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- -$331.27
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $355.2
- Potential payout
- $763.87
- Potential profit
- $408.67
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $41.56
No position
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $147.47
- Potential payout
- $719.36
- Potential profit
- $571.89
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$403.55
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $504.08
- Potential payout
- $705
- Potential profit
- $200.93
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $55.43
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $474
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $126
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $8.57
N
No position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $513
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $87
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $358.57
- Potential payout
- $501.5
- Potential profit
- $142.93
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $2.71
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $357.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $142.5
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$37.5
No position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $241.81
- Potential payout
- $451.98
- Potential profit
- $210.17
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- -$24.34
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $399
- Potential payout
- $420
- Potential profit
- $21
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $77.8
No position
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $11.8
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $388.2
- Multiplier
- 33.90x
- User PnL
- -$299.2
No position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49%
- Current value
- $196
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $204
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $349.99
- Potential payout
- $399.99
- Potential profit
- $50
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $34
No position
António Guterres out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $281.19
- Potential payout
- $387.85
- Potential profit
- $106.66
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $1.94
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.8%
- Current value
- $78.94
- Potential payout
- $305.96
- Potential profit
- $227.03
- Multiplier
- 3.88x
- User PnL
- -$171.06
No position
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $253.52
- Potential payout
- $300.02
- Potential profit
- $46.5
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $16.43
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $277.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $22.5
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $16.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $782.78
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $733
No position
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $559.67
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $435.62
Yes position
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $432
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $425
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $333.99
No position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $295.72
No position
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $282
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $265.95
No position
French election called by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $219.8
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $219.7
Yes position
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (November 17 – 23)
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.12
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $192.97
No position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $188.54
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183
No position
Will October 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.29
No position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $176.57
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.37
No position
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.19
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $154.99
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.02
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 1% 1,955.34 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 47% 300 shares
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?No 94.5% 239.99 shares
- Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?No 95.9% 200 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 89% 40 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 64% 200 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 64% 250 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 63% 100 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 63% 155 shares
- Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?Yes 44.8% 300 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 84% 199.94 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No 86% 200 shares