Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $7
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $3.49K
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$80.53
Polymarket Trader
residual
@r3s1dual
0x58c028e7c41ba7ef2bde2142cd371cf491661c8e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.39K
- Realized PnL
- $32.92K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $2.6K
- Potential payout
- $2.61K
- Potential profit
- $11.73
- User PnL
- $1.04K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $7.2
- Potential payout
- $900
- Potential profit
- $892.8
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$100.8
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $820.53
- Potential payout
- $868.29
- Potential profit
- $47.76
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $39.15
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $513.97
- Potential payout
- $718.84
- Potential profit
- $204.87
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $100.52
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Current value
- $31.85
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $668.15
- Multiplier
- 21.98x
- User PnL
- -$5.25
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $411
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $189
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $74
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $431.75
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $118.25
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $71.04
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $360.23
- Potential payout
- $428.84
- Potential profit
- $68.61
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $8.44
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $382.6
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $17.4
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $6.6
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $102
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $198
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- -$39
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 15.7%
- Current value
- $44.61
- Potential payout
- $284.15
- Potential profit
- $239.54
- Multiplier
- 6.37x
- User PnL
- $6.9
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $237.12
- Potential payout
- $249.99
- Potential profit
- $12.87
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $28.62
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.2%
- Current value
- $58.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $141.7
- Multiplier
- 3.43x
- User PnL
- $29.7
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $65
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $135
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- -$13
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $70.5
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $79.5
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $4.5
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $112.29
- Potential payout
- $149.72
- Potential profit
- $37.43
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $86.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $13.5
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $24.5
No position
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $54.9
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $5.1
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $8.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.19K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71K
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 13?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.26K
Yes position
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11K
No position
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- $1.49K
No position
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
No position
Will Dharmendra rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2K
No position
Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
Yes position
Will Truist Financial (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 17?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $902.81
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $882.92
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $859.99
No position
Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the #1 searched song on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $852.62
No position
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $746.09
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 13?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $735.72
No position
Will Liam Neeson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $714.75
No position
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $693.83
Yes position
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $647.31
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 25?
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $607.02
Yes position
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $595.29
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $557.58
No position
Will Rachel Zegler rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $516.68
Yes position
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $431.51
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 47% 300 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 87% 300 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 59.7% 2,607.22 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 41.4% 1,000 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 42.4% 301.74 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 28% 94.1 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 26.9% 1,243.17 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 69% 609.34 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 43% 500 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 56% 182.14 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 56% 249.92 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 56% 503.85 shares