kokosnasnehu

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $440
Potential profit: $440
User PnL: -$2.02

Yes position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $406
Potential profit: $406
User PnL: -$27.7

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $199.98
Potential profit: $199.98
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $190
User PnL: -$1.14

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $169.99
Potential profit: $169.99
User PnL: -$12.39

Yes position

Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

No position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132.75
Potential profit: $132.75
User PnL: -$19.62

Yes position

Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $124.69
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $117.35
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.71

Yes position

Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$1

No position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $105
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.26
Potential payout: $103.45
Potential profit: $103.19
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.74

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $102
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95
Potential profit: $95
User PnL: -$13.3

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $8.64
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $82.27
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$1.36

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

GPT ads by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.67

Team Falcons position

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.6

Yes position

Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.15

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: November

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.8

Yes position

Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.75

No position

Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.84

Gold position

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.2

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.9

Vitality position

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.8

Yes position

Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.32

Yes position

Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.4

No position

Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.28

Yes position

Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4

Yes position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.2

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.81

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.72

Team Falcons position

Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3)

Ends Dec 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.69

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: December

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.4

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.3

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

FaZe position

Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3)

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.9

No position

Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.42

Under position

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.2

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?