PMPJoel

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $19.24
Potential payout: $2.03K
Potential profit: $2.01K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $8.86
Potential payout: $1.36K
Potential profit: $1.35K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$6.14

Yes position

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $10.76
Potential payout: $741.76
Potential profit: $731
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $35.38
Potential payout: $673.99
Potential profit: $638.6
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: $10.45

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $560.12
Potential profit: $560.12
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $4.76
Potential payout: $243.9
Potential profit: $239.15
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$5.24

Yes position

Databricks IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $28.77
Potential payout: $140.36
Potential profit: $111.59
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$11.25

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $6
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $127.33
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$14

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $51.53
Potential payout: $66.49
Potential profit: $14.96
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $21.53

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $16.03
Potential payout: $62.97
Potential profit: $46.95
Multiplier: 3.93x
User PnL: $7.59

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 6.9%
Current value: $4.08
Potential payout: $59.52
Potential profit: $55.45
Multiplier: 14.60x
User PnL: -$0.92

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.68
Potential profit: $39.68
User PnL: -$15

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.48
Potential profit: $35.48
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $17.86
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $13.16
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $4.84
Potential payout: $10.87
Potential profit: $6.03
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$0.16

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.42
Potential profit: $10.42
User PnL: -$5

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $8.77
Potential profit: $3.46
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $5.13
Potential profit: $4.44
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.31

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.27

No position

Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.13

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $67.79

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.19

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

Yes position

Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.74

No position

U.S. fertility rate up in Q2 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.14

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.02

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.43

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $16.66

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.63

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.16

No position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.07

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.96

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.76

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.94

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.85

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.61

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.08

No position

Another Canada election called by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.41

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Multiplier: 23.81x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?