Polymarket Trader

sierpinski

0x5939a1c8af6205245afedd46332740566ae56687

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $68.01
Realized PnL: $123.9
Win rate: 54.2%
Open positions: 5
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win on 2025-09-04?

Ends Sep 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $342
Potential profit: $342
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $68.01
Potential payout: $181.37
Potential profit: $113.36
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$30.8

Yes position

Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-06?

Ends Sep 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $26.32
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-04?

Ends Sep 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.99
Potential profit: $12.99
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.09
Potential profit: $7.09
User PnL: -$2.34

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.65

Yes position

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.16

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $12.97

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.12

Yes position

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.69

Yes position

Solana above $190 on February 14?

Ends Feb 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.19

Yes position

Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.33

No position

Will NASA estimate a 4% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08

Yes position

Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.27

Yes position

Will Trump issue an executive order on February 12?

Ends Feb 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.21

No position

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by next Friday?

Ends Feb 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.12

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by February 28, 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$2.27

Yes position

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 51%
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$2.44

Yes position

Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.81

Yes position

Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.86

Yes position

U.S. forces in Gaza before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.27

Yes position

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.66

Yes position

Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?

Ends Feb 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.68

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Yes 57.7% 120.64 shares
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Yes 48% 60.73 shares
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Yes 43.9% 223.6 shares
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Yes 45% 223.6 shares
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

No 55% 191.26 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

Yes 33% 7.09 shares
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

No 61% 191.26 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Yes 42% 118.36 shares
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Yes 23% 216.17 shares
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Yes 17% 216.18 shares
Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-04?

Yes 77% 12.99 shares
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-06?

Yes 38% 26.32 shares