Polymarket Trader

panzer43561

0x59730a1c8cd3fb29cbfbf03c275621ae8b1d5e13

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $670.97
Realized PnL: $24.36K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.07K
Potential profit: $9.07K
User PnL: -$115.1

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 34.6%
Current value: $346.4
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $653.6
Multiplier: 2.89x
User PnL: $185.4

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.7%
Current value: $176.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $823.5
Multiplier: 5.67x
User PnL: $90.5

No position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$180

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.2%
Current value: $131.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $868.5
Multiplier: 7.60x
User PnL: -$33.5

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $325
Potential profit: $325
User PnL: -$41.97

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$24.64

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $253.11
Potential profit: $253.11
User PnL: -$75.93

Yes position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$92

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $79.8
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$9.13

No position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $16.37
Potential payout: $47.47
Potential profit: $31.1
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.99K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.48K

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.07K

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.9K

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63K

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $999.21

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $905

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $856.82

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $852

Yes position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $701.35

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $664.28

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $647.38

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $621.63

No position

Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $561.95

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $540.83

Yes position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $529.89

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $514.3

Yes position

Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $462.29

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $313.62

Yes position

Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $294.43

Yes position

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $279.89

No position

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $276.7

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $265.42

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 8.2% 300 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 1% 1,000 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 19% 500 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 38% 500 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 62% 500 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 98% 330.6 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 74.5% 40 shares
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Yes 5.7% 143.43 shares
Another pandemic before GTA VI?

No 49% 1,000 shares
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

No 49% 1,000 shares
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Yes 6.7% 202.38 shares
Another pandemic before GTA VI?

No 50% 1,000 shares