Polymarket Trader

0x5A4bEe0A465efD4cdbA65963760b3a7438cBF3b0-1767568244552

0x5a4bee0a465efd4cdba65963760b3a7438cbf3b0

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $141.91
Realized PnL: $32.14
Win rate: 81.8%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 22
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $89.09
Potential payout: $363.64
Potential profit: $274.55
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $9.09

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.2
Potential profit: $86.2
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $3.91
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $39.57
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$6.09

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $4.98
Potential payout: $34.25
Potential profit: $29.26
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 32.8%
Current value: $9.95
Potential payout: $30.4
Potential profit: $20.44
Multiplier: 3.05x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $15.7
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $7.56
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: -$4.3

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.13
Potential profit: $16.13
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $14.49
Potential profit: $14.17
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$0.67

Yes position

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $4.01
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $9.14
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $9.29
Potential payout: $12.48
Potential profit: $3.18
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $0.29

Yes position

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $9.21
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.68

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.85
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.77
Potential profit: $9.77
User PnL: -$1.27

Yes position

Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?

Ends Aug 9, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $2.18
Potential payout: $2.53
Potential profit: $0.35
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.23

Yes position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.67

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.93

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 21.5%
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $2.63

England position

Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.56

Yes position

GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.59

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.05

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.67

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) open between $7,500 and $7,600 on May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer say "Apologize" or "Apology" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$2.97

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$7.39

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 14.6% 34.25 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 32.9% 30.4 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Yes 72.1% 12.48 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?

Yes 10% 10 shares
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?

Yes 79% 2.53 shares
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Yes 19% 10.53 shares
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance

England 54% 5.56 shares
Will England win on 2026-07-01?

Yes 56% 8.93 shares
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?

Yes 22% 363.64 shares
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 1.2% 86.2 shares
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Yes 93% 6.09 shares
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Yes 48% 26.31 shares