ballyhooo

Implied probability: 7.9%
Current value: $196.25
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.3K
Multiplier: 12.74x
User PnL: -$162

No position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $1.38K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $16.45
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $1.3K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$8.55

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $106.2
Potential payout: $732.44
Potential profit: $626.24
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $6.09

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $504.36
Potential payout: $519.16
Potential profit: $14.8
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $20.35

Yes position

Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 63%
Current value: $326.02
Potential payout: $517.5
Potential profit: $191.47
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $99.41

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $21.46
Potential payout: $424.99
Potential profit: $403.53
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $51.58
Potential payout: $412.67
Potential profit: $361.09
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $3.86

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $117.63
Potential payout: $313.67
Potential profit: $196.05
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$64.26

No position

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $288.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $11.85
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $3.75

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $295.65
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $4.35
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $6.35

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $36.67
Potential payout: $222.22
Potential profit: $185.56
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$63.33

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $27.06
Potential payout: $216.51
Potential profit: $189.45
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$21.55

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?

Implied probability: 80.7%
Current value: $161.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $38.7
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$5.9

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $175
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $120.19
Potential payout: $174.22
Potential profit: $54.02
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: $70.19

No position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $130.56
Potential payout: $159.22
Potential profit: $28.66
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $30.56

Yes position

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $15.84
Potential payout: $158.43
Potential profit: $142.58
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$1.24

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $31.1
Potential payout: $151.71
Potential profit: $120.61
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $8.6

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $135
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$6

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$18.75

Yes position

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $6.82
Potential payout: $149.99
Potential profit: $143.17
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$8.17

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $4.39
Potential payout: $135.14
Potential profit: $130.75
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$0.61

No position

Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $96.84
Potential payout: $105.26
Potential profit: $8.42
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$3.16

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.28K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $875.48

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $510.06

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $478.31

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $368.47

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $303.99

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $217.52

Yes position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $201.97

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.25

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.99

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.21

Yes position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.35

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.98

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.5

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $87.97

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.16

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.84

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $77.64

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 60.7%
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $70.36

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?