Polymarket Trader

DistortedReality

0x5b8f191a4a3e66fe9b7348891f21021399762c14

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $438.54
Realized PnL: $21.28K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $150.68
Potential payout: $16.74K
Potential profit: $16.59K
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$1.52K

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.05K
Potential profit: $12.05K
User PnL: -$48.21

No position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $96.06
Potential payout: $2.56K
Potential profit: $2.47K
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$14.09

No position

Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.56K
User PnL: -$240.41

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $84.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.42K
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$15.75

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $67.47
Potential payout: $1.48K
Potential profit: $1.42K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$25.95

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $39.57
Potential payout: $1.36K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: -$10.43

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $1.05K
User PnL: -$121.15

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $749.85
Potential profit: $749.85
User PnL: -$97.48

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.44K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.31K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.96K

Yes position

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44K

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33K

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

No position

Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $996.97

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $942.05

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $888.18

No position

Will Iran strike Oman again in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $820.02

Yes position

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $722.77

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $588.27

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $518

No position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $467.63

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $318.32

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $315

Demoor position

Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $311.9

Sean Strickland position

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $296.35

No position

Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $257.11

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $251.77

Yes position

Trump kiss by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $249.8

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $246.38

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 3.7% 1,364.44 shares
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5

Over 12% 999.19 shares
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5

Over 29% 201.91 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 3.2% 1,861.38 shares
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5

Over 28% 92.36 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 4% 1,224.76 shares
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5

Over 28% 704.93 shares
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

No 16% 1,129.35 shares
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

No 14% 419 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 4.2% 3,201.12 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 7% 1,996.05 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 45% 195.76 shares