Polymarket Trader

lukas11

0x5c271ab46170c7e42a8334902755aa4495f21555

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $16.06K
Realized PnL: $7.94K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $577.88
Potential payout: $50.25K
Potential profit: $49.67K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$334.57

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $665.55
Potential payout: $13.72K
Potential profit: $13.06K
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$437.19

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $6.33K
Potential payout: $11K
Potential profit: $4.68K
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $1.75K

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $1.21K
Potential payout: $2.66K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $187.68

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $1.29K
Potential payout: $2.16K
Potential profit: $876.38
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $63.47

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $1.95K
Potential payout: $1.97K
Potential profit: $22.71
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $845.48

No position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $808.74
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $622.91
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $57.11

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $1.15K
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $227.1
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $557.14

No position

Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $886.31
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $389.14
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $245.62

Yes position

Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $88.2
Potential payout: $705.58
Potential profit: $617.39
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$71.03

Yes position

Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $129.79
Potential payout: $489.76
Potential profit: $359.98
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$57.45

Yes position

Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $169.15
Potential payout: $380.11
Potential profit: $210.96
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$15.17

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $258.74
Potential payout: $367
Potential profit: $108.26
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $52.05

No position

World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $275.22
Potential payout: $346.19
Potential profit: $70.97
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $13.78

Ronaldo position

World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $15.43
Potential payout: $270.63
Potential profit: $255.21
Multiplier: 17.54x
User PnL: -$91.88

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $172.87
Potential payout: $174.26
Potential profit: $1.39
User PnL: $57.18

Yes position

Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $121.43
Potential profit: $121.43
User PnL: -$43

Alvarez position

World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $4.99
Potential payout: $99.79
Potential profit: $94.8
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$31.93

No position

Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $94.85
Potential profit: $94.85
User PnL: -$44.58

No position

Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $53.58
Potential payout: $56.7
Potential profit: $3.12
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $12.76

No position

Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $23.37
Potential payout: $36.23
Potential profit: $12.86
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$2.94

No position

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $6.41
Potential payout: $7.5
Potential profit: $1.09
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $530.31

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $478.79

No position

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $474.29

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.8%
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $391.31

Yes position

Will Barcelona win La Liga?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $377.99

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $372.83

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $335.99

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $332.41

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $308.16

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $305.94

Yes position

Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-04-26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $292.64

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $275.46

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $239.69

No position

Israel strikes Iran before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $237.27

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.65

Yes position

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $216.28

No position

Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $211.49

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $201.06

No position

Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.61

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.9

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.64

No position

FIFA Club World Cup: Will Vinicius Junior score another goal?

Ends Jul 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.96

No position

Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.39

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

No 66% 9.56 shares
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 99.9% 100 shares
US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No 53% 1.89 shares
US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No 53% 17.92 shares
US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No 50% 80 shares
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 72% 56.7 shares
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?

No 75% 146.67 shares
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 15% 1.01 shares
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 14% 71.11 shares
US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No 50% 204 shares
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo

Ronaldo 39% 2.56 shares
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo

Ronaldo 39% 73.08 shares