No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $12.23K
- Potential payout
- $12.25K
- Potential profit
- $18.37
- User PnL
- $545.73
Polymarket Trader
alternate01
0x5c4ce2053442cc7b19d300ffd39b7f38cd138131
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $17.03K
- Realized PnL
- $3.03K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.72K
- Potential profit
- $2.72K
- User PnL
- -$2.58K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $1.99K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $7
- User PnL
- $29
No position
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 87.7%
- Current value
- $910.08
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $127.64
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $66.29
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $560
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $240
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- $68.28
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $599.1
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$44.1
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.9%
- Current value
- $94.25
- Potential payout
- $500.01
- Potential profit
- $405.76
- Multiplier
- 5.31x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $452.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $47.5
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $57.5
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $452.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $47.5
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $47.5
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $259.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $40.5
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $17.5
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $81.49
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $18.51
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$2.51
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $566.98
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $293.81
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $284.91
Yes position
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $211.5
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.8
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.41
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.74
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.76
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.5
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102
Yes position
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.86
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.3
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74
Yes position
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.86
No position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.9
No position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.82
No position
Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.69
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.66
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.5
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No 90.3% 71.34 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by May 8?Yes 1.6% 305 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 94% 2,000 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No 80% 200 shares
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No 90.6% 13.92 shares
- Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?No 70% 240 shares
- Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?No 84% 120 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No 99% 5 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 91.4% 1,489.93 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 91.5% 489.93 shares
- Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 3.3% 548.57 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 90% 200 shares