0x5c941a66b53062556b29bae01cE09f4837bF6261-1778119900624

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $555.56
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $184.6
Potential profit: $184.6
User PnL: -$85.26

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110.24
Potential profit: $110.24
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $14.24
Potential payout: $89.29
Potential profit: $75.04
Multiplier: 6.27x
User PnL: $4.24

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $89.29
Potential profit: $89.29
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.02
Potential payout: $82.42
Potential profit: $80.4
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$5.48

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.52
Potential profit: $81.52
User PnL: -$39.13

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $1.83
Potential payout: $74.63
Potential profit: $72.8
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$3.17

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 38.6%
Current value: $22.54
Potential payout: $58.48
Potential profit: $35.94
Multiplier: 2.59x
User PnL: $12.54

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.14
Potential profit: $58.14
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.8%
Current value: $10.42
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $45.14
Multiplier: 5.33x
User PnL: $5.42

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $53.19
Potential profit: $53.19
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $8.07
Potential payout: $49.05
Potential profit: $40.98
Multiplier: 6.08x
User PnL: $7.07

Yes position

Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.64
Potential profit: $48.64
User PnL: -$10

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.08
Potential profit: $48.08
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.11
Potential profit: $42.11
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $4.79
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $36.88
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.9
Potential profit: $32.9
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $27.78
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $7.36
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $20.42
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $2.36

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.1

Yes position

Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.85

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.7

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.23

Yes position

Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.11

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.9

Yes position

Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.98

Yes position

Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.23

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.01

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.7

Yes position

Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.21

Yes position

Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.49

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.38

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.93

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.17

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97

No position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.17

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04

No position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.84

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?