stonewu

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.51K
Potential profit: $3.51K
User PnL: -$3.54

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.55
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$1.15

Ecuador position

Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.09
Potential profit: $90.09
User PnL: -$13.19

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.09
Potential profit: $90.09
User PnL: -$4.95

Yes position

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $2.56
Potential payout: $82.45
Potential profit: $79.89
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$7.44

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 12.2%
Current value: $9.11
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $65.89
Multiplier: 8.23x
User PnL: $4.61

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68.18
Potential profit: $68.18
User PnL: -$0.68

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.51
Potential payout: $67.59
Potential profit: $67.08
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$4.49

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.61
Potential profit: $56.61
User PnL: -$21.4

Yes position

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $55.98
Potential profit: $55
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$3.01

Germany position

Spread: Germany (-3.5)

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$5

Netherlands position

Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.55
Potential profit: $55.55
User PnL: -$1.06

No position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.55
Potential profit: $55.55
User PnL: -$11.05

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.54
Potential profit: $55.54
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $53.9
Potential profit: $53.9
User PnL: -$10.13

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.69
Potential profit: $50.69
User PnL: -$30.92

Yes position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.49
Potential profit: $46.49
User PnL: -$4.15

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $5.47
Potential payout: $43.73
Potential profit: $38.26
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $1.09

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.35
Potential profit: $37.35
User PnL: -$19.56

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.73
Potential profit: $33.73
User PnL: -$2.09

Ecuador position

Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $33.02
Potential profit: $32.97
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.9

Curaçao position

Spread: Germany (-1.5)

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.35
Potential profit: $25.35
User PnL: -$4.99

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.16

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $50.61

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.93

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.59

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.78

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.53

No position

Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.49

No position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.03

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.3

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.11

No position

Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.03

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.58

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.38

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.07

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.3

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.3

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.1

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.77

No position

Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.41

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.08

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Implied probability: 99%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.68

No position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.65

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.59

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?