bright-sandwich

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $10.44
Potential payout: $206.71
Potential profit: $196.27
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: -$1.34

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $2.23
Potential payout: $193.5
Potential profit: $191.27
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$13.85

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $23.61
Potential payout: $102.86
Potential profit: $79.25
Multiplier: 4.36x
User PnL: $3.24

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $16.89
Potential payout: $62.54
Potential profit: $45.65
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$13.11

No position

World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.44
Potential profit: $57.44
User PnL: -$44.99

No position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $23.81
Potential payout: $49.6
Potential profit: $25.79
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$6.2

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $48.44
Potential payout: $48.46
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $3.45

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $45.07
Potential payout: $45.16
Potential profit: $0.09
User PnL: $0.09

No position

World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $39.47
Potential payout: $41.42
Potential profit: $1.95
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.88
Potential profit: $40.88
User PnL: -$17.52

No position

Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.1%
Current value: $31.65
Potential payout: $35.92
Potential profit: $4.27
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.66

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $35.1
Potential payout: $35.12
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $32.02
Potential payout: $32.94
Potential profit: $0.92
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.57

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $25.6
Potential payout: $25.9
Potential profit: $0.3
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $6.19
Potential payout: $23.8
Potential profit: $17.61
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$8.81

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.12
Potential profit: $21.12
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $20.07
Potential payout: $20.09
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $17.95
Potential payout: $17.96
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $2.95

No position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $16.4
Potential payout: $17.04
Potential profit: $0.64
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.41

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $16.54
Potential payout: $16.66
Potential profit: $0.12
User PnL: $1.55

No position

World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?

Implied probability: 90.4%
Current value: $14.81
Potential payout: $16.39
Potential profit: $1.58
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $15.4
Potential payout: $16.3
Potential profit: $0.9
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.41

No position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $14.81
Potential payout: $15.37
Potential profit: $0.56
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.28

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $14.99
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.29

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $52.49

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.28

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.03

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.21

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.98

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.39

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET