0x5D4EC67C9Fb7958CC6ff6708C1d175D1f2a67a5F-1768453850164

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.79K
Potential profit: $4.79K
User PnL: -$699.99

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.86K
Potential profit: $2.86K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.42K
Potential profit: $2.42K
User PnL: -$405

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.53K
Potential profit: $1.53K
User PnL: -$21

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $1.43K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.37K
User PnL: -$300

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $56.02
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.29K
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$43.87

Yes position

US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.18K
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $1.16K
User PnL: -$249

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $155.9
Potential payout: $944.83
Potential profit: $788.93
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$151.1

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $769.23
Potential profit: $769.23
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $755.27
Potential profit: $755.27
User PnL: -$130

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $670
Potential profit: $670
User PnL: -$100.5

Yes position

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $53.55
Potential payout: $629.95
Potential profit: $576.41
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$47.25

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $88.73
Potential payout: $554.55
Potential profit: $465.82
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$152.27

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.88
Potential profit: $499.88
User PnL: -$216.95

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $24.47
Potential payout: $444.83
Potential profit: $420.36
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$89.53

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $442.43
Potential profit: $442.43
User PnL: -$300

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $434.78
Potential payout: $434.78
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $334.78

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 17.3%
Current value: $69.36
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $330.64
Multiplier: 5.77x
User PnL: -$68.84

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $344.83
Potential profit: $344.83
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $315.79
Potential profit: $315.79
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 38.6%
Current value: $120.09
Potential payout: $311.53
Potential profit: $191.43
Multiplier: 2.59x
User PnL: $20.09

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.46K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $436

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.89

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.69

Yes position

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.96

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.75

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.61

Yes position

Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.82

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.21

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.85

Yes position

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.11

Yes position

Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.29

Yes position

Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.57

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.6

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.4

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.64

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.67

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01

Yes position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?