Polymarket Trader

0x5d61...bd54

0x5d6107ef926ebe03f9b19f0aa2ec2e606a20bd54

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $93.27
Realized PnL: $254.47
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 17
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.47K
Potential profit: $1.47K
User PnL: -$20.5

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $8.66
Potential payout: $227.95
Potential profit: $219.29
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$1.34

Yes position

Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $114.89
Potential profit: $114.26
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$9.37

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113.63
Potential profit: $113.63
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $104.17
Potential profit: $104.17
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $8.07
Potential payout: $84.96
Potential profit: $76.88
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$11.88

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $82.33
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$9

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $11.19
Potential payout: $82.92
Potential profit: $71.72
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $1.24

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $9.21
Potential payout: $80.08
Potential profit: $70.87
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.4

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.54
Potential profit: $76.54
User PnL: -$9.95

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $12.93
Potential payout: $60.13
Potential profit: $47.2
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $3.31

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $47.79
Potential profit: $47.77
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$7.69

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $1.93
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $45.69
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$8.07

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $37.04
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $34.48
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $3.03
Potential payout: $31.88
Potential profit: $28.85
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$6.97

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $9.84
Potential payout: $29.36
Potential profit: $19.53
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $25.64
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 71.8%
Current value: $14.66
Potential payout: $20.42
Potential profit: $5.76
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $4.66

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $20.4
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.99

No position

Iran closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.93
Potential profit: $14.93
User PnL: -$10

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $12.09
Potential payout: $12.66
Potential profit: $0.57
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.09

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.16

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.54

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $18.23

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.81

No position

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 26.3%
Multiplier: 3.81x
User PnL: $11.77

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.9%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $7.95

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 36.4%
Multiplier: 2.75x
User PnL: $7.46

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.2%
Multiplier: 46.51x
User PnL: $7.33

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $7.27

No position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $7.08

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.7

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 11.4%
Multiplier: 8.77x
User PnL: $4.62

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.05

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.02

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.23

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

No 63.3% 34.31 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 18.1% 136.01 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

No 16% 60.13 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

No 12% 80.08 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 59% 29.51 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 33% 29.36 shares
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

No 31.1% 86.78 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 33.7% 29.51 shares
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

No 29% 34.31 shares
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

No 20% 49.75 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

No 16.1% 47.79 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

Yes 80.2% 82.91 shares