Polymarket Trader

OkaneKasegu

0x5d748cf9e4f90dcbf26c25c7ed1a9c741e41ee45

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $49.34K
Realized PnL: $58.26K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 24.7%
Current value: $6.16K
Potential payout: $25K
Potential profit: $18.84K
Multiplier: 4.06x
User PnL: -$6.34K

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 75.3%
Current value: $18.84K
Potential payout: $25K
Potential profit: $6.17K
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $6.34K

Yes position

Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $20K
User PnL: -$49.98

Yes position

Was Kanye hacked?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.28K
Potential profit: $13.28K
User PnL: -$273.98

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.28K
Potential profit: $11.28K
User PnL: -$708.06

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11K
Potential profit: $11K
User PnL: -$68.41

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.41K
Potential profit: $9.41K
User PnL: -$1.03K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $8.95K
Potential payout: $9K
Potential profit: $49.5
User PnL: $1.2K

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.88K
Potential profit: $8.88K
User PnL: -$52.6

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.76K
Potential profit: $6.76K
User PnL: -$949.74

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.62K
Potential profit: $6.62K
User PnL: -$423.37

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $3.45K
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $2.55K
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $479.92

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.8K
Potential profit: $5.8K
User PnL: -$1.08K

No position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$35

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $227.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.77K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: $117.5

Yes position

Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.79K
Potential profit: $4.79K
User PnL: -$88.6

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $3.98K
Potential payout: $4.4K
Potential profit: $418.03
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $684.12

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.9%
Current value: $682.79
Potential payout: $4.29K
Potential profit: $3.61K
Multiplier: 6.29x
User PnL: $271.02

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 18?

Ends Dec 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.06K
Potential profit: $4.06K
User PnL: -$14.96

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $3.77K
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $230
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $510.01

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $3.28K
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $720
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $720

No position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.89K
Potential profit: $3.89K
User PnL: -$2.18K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.89K
Potential profit: $3.89K
User PnL: -$700.74

Resolved Context

Closed positions

California Baptist Lancers position

California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.93K

Yes position

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.18K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.21K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.43K

No position

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.41K

No position

Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23K

Yes position

TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89K

No position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83K

Yes position

Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.66K

Yes position

Trump cryptocurrency executive order in first week?

Ends Jan 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.64K

No position

US recession in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $1.39K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36K

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32K

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.7%
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: $1.29K

No position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28K

Yes position

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.6%
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $1.28K

Yes position

Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18K

Yes position

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

No position

Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

Yes position

Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

No position

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

Yes position

Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $954.64

No position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $917.64

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 82% 3,899.02 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

No 22% 455.77 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Yes 50% 312.46 shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 54% 1,822.6 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

No 26% 1,000 shares
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

No 41% 615.09 shares
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

No 41% 584.26 shares
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Yes 58% 5 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Yes 37% 500 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Yes 20% 500 shares
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Yes 58% 712.09 shares
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?

No 96.7% 104.4 shares